The Millennium Project:

  The book properly cautions in its initial "Executive Summary" that it is in fact impossible to "know" what will happen, but potential developments can be evaluated and planned for (at least where a sufficient consensus about probabilities and appropriate responses is reached), and efforts to achieve improved outcomes can be devised. As might be expected in so wide ranging an effort, the project exhibits a wide variety of strengths and weaknesses.
  &
  There has also perhaps been some compromise in intellectual rigor due to the effort needed to retain widespread participation. In several of the main chapters, the book and CD suffer from a failure to make judgments about validity and viability of suggestions, and a failure to weed out the weaker submissions. This makes the CD very long and time consuming and sometimes tedious, but does offer the advantage of indicating some of the nonsense that has been put forth on the subjects covered.
  &
  Most often, the nonsense is the result of an abysmal lack of understanding of basic economics and governance limitations - which will be repeatedly pointed out at appropriate points below.

Global Challenges and Meta Strategies:

 While "Global Challenges" and problems are emphasized, the book also emphasizes policies and approaches - the "Meta Strategies" - available for dealing with future challenges. It thus escapes becoming an exercise exclusively in the familiar "Cassandra" approach to futurist thinking.

  Of course, there is nothing wrong with the "Cassandra" approach. Indeed, the "Cassandra" approach is both ancient and of great use - when accurate. Although Cassandra was disregarded, such warnings can be a very powerful method of gaining attention and stimulating public action - as many futurists and political activists well know. It thus can be very beneficial - when accurate. Unfortunately, it can also be very harmful when erroneous or employed as a propaganda ploy for ulterior motives.

  Winston Churchill's warnings about Nazi Germany prior to WW II, and his famous Iron Curtain speech at the start of the Cold War, are classic examples of vastly significant 20th century futurist successes.

  Several "Cassandra" success stories are listed in the book. Warnings about AIDS, ozone depletion and other environmental threats, and population forecasts, among others, have led to useful policy responses.

  Winston Churchill's warnings about Nazi Germany prior to WW II, and his famous Iron Curtain speech at the start of the Cold War, are classic examples of vastly significant 20th century futurist successes.
  &
  Classic examples of error or abuse are widely known, but none are included in the book and only one is mentioned in the CD. It would be useful to study such errors. Aside from the desire to avoid them, it is a truism that we learn most from our mistakes.
  &
  The Swine Flu scare of the 1970s, and the Nuclear Winter scare concerning the oil well fires during the Gulf War (mentioned in the CD) come immediately to mind. Warnings about a return of the Ice Age were prevalent just a few decades ago.

Supported by phony forecasts of inevitability and success, socialism and other command economy efforts have been a vast human disaster.

  The Malthusian error continues to influence attitudes in certain intellectual circles - most notably at present with respect to fears concerning the adequacy of economic resources in general and China's agricultural capacity in particular - and is prominently given credence at several points in this book. To its credit, the CD does include a warning against such linear analysis - the fallacy of simplistic extrapolation.

  Socialist thinkers of all kinds - from Fabians to Marxists - included phony forecasts in their all too frequently effective propaganda myths. Socialism and other command economy efforts have been a vast human disaster. They catastrophically undermined economic development for billions of third world and communist nation peoples during much of the 20th century, and undermined prosperity in many European nations for a generation. As usual, reality perversely refused to conform to ideological expectations.
  &
  Professional futurists should accept an obligation to debunk such dangerous ideologically based forecasts - as they can cause vast miseries and undermine credibility for the entire profession. At any rate, FUTURECASTS will take this responsibility seriously.

  Encouragingly, the book's discussion of futures research and use in policymaking repeatedly stresses the need for accuracy. 

• "Provide information that demonstrates unequivocally that a crisis is pending - - -." 

• "[Candidly reveal when] the information and data are inaccurate, unreliable, conflicting, and/or insufficient, - - -."

  Thus, it is vital to objectively evaluate each "Global Challenge" and the suggested responses set forth in this project - to discern "the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly." Is that big Wooden Horse really likely to prove troublesome?

Futures Research and Decisionmaking:

  The Chapter on Futures Research and Decisionmaking - most of which appears in the CD -  is a strong chapter, and is undoubtedly the most useful to anyone interested in understanding how futurist consultants work. Its review of futurist techniques - nine interesting examples of successful futurist consulting - and review of National Foresight Programs conducted for eight advanced nations - is a little gold mine of methodology and practical application.
  &

  Techniques utilized included: Scanning of documents and publications to identify trends and issues - analysis of  competitor policies - various Delphi iterative interview methods - scanning of knowledgeable professional consultants and other outside sources - collaborative visioning to ascertain desirable goals - plausible scenarios to evaluate impacts of outside developments and impacts of policy alternatives - administrative tasking to achieve goals - follow up Delphi interviews to evaluate progress and uncover newly perceived threats and opportunities. Underlying it all is historic research to reach an understanding of current status and to ascertain continuing trends.

FUTURECASTS' motto: History opens windows on the future.

Global Challenges:

Environmental Security:

  The environmental challenges of modern life also occupy an entire impressive Environmental Security chapter. It indicates the myriad complications of environmental policy, and includes a  list of predominantly realistic environmental threats which - although impressively long - is candidly acknowledged as far from complete. Thought on the subject is concentrated by fifteen scenarios -  of which only a few are dubious (fears of rainmaking as a cause for conflict) or clearly unrealistic (a Somalia type intervention in North Korea to end starvation).
  &

  By basing scenarios in many instances on actual occurrences or ongoing processes (nuclear releases - spills from biological weapons), realism is injected into most of the scenarios. Unreality in the scenarios and accompanying comments is most frequently based on some residual Luddite tendencies and intellectual denial of inherent limitations in the ability of the United Nations to act - afflictions pervasive throughout the project.
  &
  The Environmental Security chapter becomes confused in the CD by its attempt to highlight environmental problems as a cause for military conflict - and war as a producer of environmental problems. Environmental problems and problems of human conflict are not difficult enough - the two are mixed together to create quagmires of confused thought. While not an unrealistic consideration, environmental problems are among the least likely causes of conflict.

  This tendency to mix secondary objectives with primary objectives mars much of the project. In particular, egalitarian objectives are mixed in with several primary challenges - technological development, optimum functioning of market economies, and environmental impacts of economic development - with inevitable confusion of thought on these issues. Population growth that has severe environmental implications is mixed with Malthusian fears of resource scarcity.

  The long list of likely environmental causes of conflict includes such realistic threats as control over rivers and fisheries - but also includes such dubious conflict causes as use of chemical fertilizer, pesticides and detergents - natural disasters - soil erosion - salinization - drug resistant diseases - and poverty.
  &
  There is an apparent - embryonic - effort reflected in the Environmental Security chapter to outlaw military force by criminalizing its environmental impacts. Suggestions about the definition of "environmental impact" include many of the ordinary horrors of military conflict (destruction of civilian properties - exploitation of captured natural resources - destruction of industrial sites that release toxic materials - destruction of water and sewer facilities).
  &
  Obviously, this could only be enforced against weak nations and the defeated - although an effort to make the U.S. clean up its battlefields is also reported. The Russians need not worry about being asked to account for their actions in Chechnya on environmental or any other grounds. Revealingly, Israel is being ganged up on in the Governing Council of the UN Environmental Program - which now routinely condemns Israeli military operations on environmental grounds, but ignores other ongoing conflicts. Except for the deliberate oil well fires and oil spills during the Gulf War, no other military actions are noted as having received similar UN attention on environmental grounds.
  &
  Despite this ridiculousness, this is a strong chapter that contains much useful and thought provoking information and insight on environmental problems.

Meta Strategies:

Economic growth:

 Mechanisms of economic and political freedom:

  The basic mechanisms of political and economic freedom responsible for the success of modern advanced nations are properly mentioned prominently among the "Meta Strategies."

• Multiparty electoral systems (democracy).

• Rule-based independent legal systems (rule of law).

• Civil empowerment of individuals and groups (civil rights).

• Market directed economic systems (capitalism).

The allocation of scarce resources is what markets do better - and fairer - than any administered effort.

  Democracy - as Winston Churchill so aptly pointed out - is an absurdly ineffective way to run a country - unless you first realistically consider all the other practicable alternatives.
&
  Due process is inefficient by design. Independent judicial systems intentionally impose obstacles to efficient decisionmaking processes to prevent arbitrary and capricious actions. Nevertheless, due process is an essential element in checking the abuse of power.
&
  Civil rights subject official decisionmaking to the influence of a wide variety of vested - often conflicting - interests. However, civil rights are essential to limit abuses of power, and assure widespread civil empowerment and input, and the legitimacy and widespread public acceptance of administrative processes.
&
  Capitalist profit driven market directed commerce is not an utopian arrangement and does not provide perfect results. It is merely - by far - the most efficient and fairest method for the production and allocation of scarce resources. It is the only way to provide the massive resources needed for politically administered programs designed to do what markets can't do.

  The importance of market systems facilitated by good governance practices is set forth in a fine little summary.

•  Free markets accelerate economic development, but fail to deal with various problems like environmental degradation that are "external" to the market system and that therefore are dependent on administered (governmental) approaches unless they can appropriately be reflected in pricing mechanisms.

• Stable and effective governance and honest, independent rule-based legal systems are essential for efficient operation of market systems and to assure that all have opportunity to participate and contribute.

• Sound budgetary, monetary, and banking policies are vital.

• Access to land, capital, and information is essential.

• Social and environmental goals can often be achieved by appropriate business incentives.

• Welfare attitudes must be replaced by entrepreneurial spirit, which can be assisted by microcredit mechanisms and technical assistance.

• Entrepreneurial skills and business math should be included in education curricula.

• Employee ownership should be encouraged.

• Internet commerce should be encouraged, along with internet medicine and internet education.

• Anticompetitive behavior is a fundamental threat to proper operation of market mechanisms.

  Unfortunately, this important summary is included in a ""Rich-Poor Gap" segment that presents egalitarian outcomes as part of a "Global Challenge" of poverty alleviation. This segment is based on a lot of economic rubbish. (See below.)

  These five mechanisms of political and economic freedom are the basic and irreplaceable prerequisites for achieving modern living standards, and for successfully dealing with most of the identified future challenges. Unfortunately - except for multiparty democracy - the book fails to properly emphasize this obvious fact. Instead, they are listed merely as equals among all the other strategies and policies available, and the importance of enforceable property and creditor rights is almost totally ignored.

 Market mechanisms readily achieve far better results than any administered or command economy alternatives - including any of the alternatives advocated by various utopians - which are invariably smothered in unintended consequences.

Unfortunately, government decision making processes are inherently inefficient  for a wide variety of reasons.

  Utopian standards can never be satisfied by these mechanisms. They all suffer from the broad array of human weaknesses. Egalitarian policies invariably prove highly disruptive to them all. Impractical utopian perfection is always the greatest enemy of the imperfect practical best.
  &
  However, market mechanisms in particular are essential. They initiate self-acting processes and give play to human strengths, creativity and dynamism. They routinely handle the vast complexities and obstacles to decision making that the project properly acknowledges as afflicting command economy approaches. They readily achieve far better results than any administered or command economy alternatives - including any of the alternatives advocated by various utopians - which are invariably smothered in unintended consequences. They provide the resources for - and otherwise greatly facilitate - administered policies in the many instances where administered policies are needed  or desired.
  &
  Dysfunctional or nonexistent markets are a prescription for unavoidable disaster.

  All of the administered and command economy alternatives suffer myriad problems. Factors that limit various governmental and private decision making processes and responses are candidly reviewed in the book..

• There are always, of course, funding limitations.

• There are problems concerning institutional responsibility, coordination and inertia. There is "short termism" with interest in and planning for immediate  needs and opportunities taking precedence over the longer term.

• There are human limits - of inadequate information, knowledge and skills - overwhelming complexities - inability to agree on clear cut strategies or goals or to coordinate the complex activities often needed to achieve agreed upon goals.

• There are divergent interests and  ideologies among public and private groups.

  Yet, even all of this barely scratches the surface with respect to the many obstacles to administrative decision making processes for large bureaucratic entities. Unfortunately, government decision making processes are inherently inefficient  for a wide variety of reasons.
  &
  Unlike capitalist economic decision making processes, governments lack efficient automatic "bottom line" mechanisms to guide the decision making efforts of fallible humans and force correction of errors. They lack profit and loss statements - sales charts - and meaningful accounting systems. Political budgetary processes are arcane, generally measure the costs of  inputs instead of the costs of outputs, and are designed for other reasons than efficiency and transparency. In the U.S., due process constraints and administrative hearing requirements intrude at every point where government decisions impact private interests.
  &
  Many intellectuals remain determinedly in denial about these and other obstacles to government decision making.

Other Meta Strategies for dealing with Global Challenges:

• A broad array of technological advances - some of which are listed - can also be expected to massively expand the resources available for dealing with present and future challenges and problems.
• Continued improvement in basic literacy and the broadening of access to all levels of education will have powerful, far reaching impacts.
• Increasing participation by an ever broadening array of private civic organizations (NGOs), and the development of an increasing array of international standards setting and regulatory enforcement organizations, and coordinating protocols will improve governance in an age of globalization and increasing complexity.
• Increasing prosperity (at least in those nations that facilitate market directed commerce) will solve many problems and provide the resources needed for dealing with others.

  The list of methods available for dealing with future challenges goes on in impressive length. Listed in the "Meta Strategies" chapter with the fundamental mechanisms referred to above (water pricing - costing of nuclear plant dismantling - teaching rule of law and entrepreneurial skills) are a host of useful administered approaches (improving the transparency and accountability of the U.N. - research and development of alternative energy, alternative medicine and other fields not yet of widespread interest to private businesses) - many of which are already in use (Human Genome Project) - some of dubious practicality (providing sources of income to out of office politicians) - and some that are hopelessly naive (international agency to "tame" currency markets). Education, training, and propaganda for various causes also figure prominently in the list.
 &
  Many strategies - of necessity - are stated in general terms that can include both the useful and the absurd (campaign finance reform). The devil is in the details.

Realistic Global Challenges segments:

  Regional perspectives on the various challenges provide illuminating insights - as well as obvious blind spots.
  &

Infectious diseases:

By paying market and patent protected prices, the American people subsidize a large part of the effort to meet the health needs of the whole world.

  Environmental factors that weaken immune and other human defenses and expose people to strange new afflictions - drug resistance - agricultural use of antibiotics and misuse of antibiotics in human treatment - widespread poverty and malnutrition in nations that lack functioning commercial markets - liability risks that deter research and development of drugs and vaccines that are only marginally profitable -- the list of problems is deplorably long and yet nevertheless incomplete.
 &
  The major burden in the fight against infectious diseases rests with the United States, which has the resources and the scientific and economic base for the battle.

  A significant omission in this fine segment is awareness of the vital role of patent protected drug markets - such as that in the United States - that provide the profit inducement and financial resources for the massive ongoing scientific efforts of the much maligned drug companies. By paying market and patent protected prices, the American people subsidize a large part of the effort to meet the health needs of the whole world.
  &
  The other side of this coin is the "orphan drug" problem for less widespread afflictions - the sad fact that "treatments" are more profitable than "cures" - and the all too real risk that successful vaccines or other cures may be deprived of patent protection in many nations and so fail to offer the profits needed to justify the risks and expenses of development. 

  Unsurprisingly, poor nations that do not pay patent protected market prices for their drug needs are not having their unique health problems addressed by research. (Theft of intellectual property may provide some short term benefits, but is clearly self defeating.)
 &

The status of women:

 Improvements in the status of women are correctly stressed as a vital element in dealing with a wide variety of future challenges - but are obviously more than justified on their own merits..

  "Where the status of women has strengthened, birth rates decline and welfare advances. Educated women tend to raise healthier children, have lower fertility, and contribute to the workforce more effectively. - - - The survival of children is related to women's economic power and to their role in society. Improving the status of women could be the most cost-effective strategy for addressing most of the challenges we face at the millennium."

Administered "comparable worth" alternatives to labor market outcomes will inevitably be as disappointing and destructive as all administered pricing schemes - just as would administered efforts to deprive women of their advantages in insurance markets.

  Much progress has been made in the last two decades. Women in developing countries have advanced twice as fast as men in literacy and education, and have enjoyed a 50% drop in mortality rates worldwide. Improved literacy - improved and inexpensive contraceptives - effective family planning programs - women's rights movements - and the internet are some of the beneficial factors. Property rights and access to credit are properly emphasized.
  &
  Unfortunately, violence against women remains a widespread problem. The vast majority of the illiterate and those in poverty are women. In many nations, girls receive significantly less education than boys. In many societies, the inferiority of the conditions under which women live is institutionalized.
  &
  The segment's Indicators of Progress includes a "comparable worth" indicator comparing pay for "similar work" between men and women.

  This fails to acknowledge the politically incorrect fact that there are (gasp!) real differences between men and women - that these differences impose both advantages and disadvantages on both - and that efforts to achieve strict comparability will neither be achieved nor will the attempt be beneficial. This is especially true in economic markets. Administered "comparable worth" alternatives to labor market outcomes will inevitably be as disappointing and destructive as all administered pricing schemes - just as would administered efforts to deprive women of their advantages in insurance markets.

Water shortfalls:

The infrastructure to deliver excellent bottled and purified drinking water at prices well below that for beer or soft drinks already exists.

  The segment notes various available remedial measures, including changes in agricultural practices - water pricing - desalination and reforestation initiatives - development of crops that require less water and tolerate more salt - improved management of watersheds - appropriate international agreements - and cutting edge agricultural technology.

  The segment fails to note that the infrastructure to deliver excellent bottled and purified drinking water at prices well below that for beer or soft drinks already exists. Many health food stores offer purified water through multiple filtration systems at less than 40 cents per gallon. While many deplore the impact on subsidized agriculture and the poor of realistic market pricing for water, there is in fact no policy or group of policies that will work as effectively.

Transnational crime:

The more effective the drug fighting effort, the higher the prices for drugs, and the more financial resources the gangsters obtain for overcoming law enforcement efforts.

The major criminal groups will have no trouble designing methods to get around any money laundering regulatory scheme, and have more than enough resources to implement those methods.

 The UN is going to successfully pick up "The White Man's Burden," where the great European imperial powers ultimately failed? With whose resources and whose armies?

  Prohibitionist efforts to suppress illicit recreational drugs are correctly blamed for making massive resources available to organized crime. International systems for fighting crime and imposing criminal law sanctions are increasingly needed, but are everywhere hindered by the limited cooperation provided by many nations, and resource limitations of third world nations.

  Fighting illicit drugs is a labor of Sisyphus. The more effective the effort, the higher the prices for drugs, and the greater the financial resources available to the gangsters for overcoming law enforcement efforts.
  &
  Unfortunately, the book has a predominantly unrealistic view of the effectiveness of various regulatory approaches designed to deal with "money laundering." The major criminal groups will have no trouble designing methods to get around any regulatory scheme, and have more than enough resources to implement those methods. Any capable futurist will readily predict that such schemes will in fact be tried, will be very imperfectly administered, and will largely fail.

  As one commentator in the Regional Perspectives for North America in the CD put it: "Money laundering is tough to spot. Money moves with the speed of light. Criminals in cyberspace are largely anonymous."

  The abuse of  regulatory and enforcement powers is also easily  predictable. The book, for example, advocates the freezing of assets upon apprehension - which means that the accused will be penalized whether convicted or not. Abuses of such police powers always occur.

  UN trusteeships to take over and run "failed states" in Africa and elsewhere where crime and civil conflict go unchecked are recommended by some.

  The UN is going to successfully pick up "The White Man's Burden," where the great European imperial powers ultimately failed? With whose resources and whose armies?
  &
  It is terribly tragic but unavoidable. Some help and advice is available from outside, but each nation must suffer the ordeal of learning to govern itself.

Global ethics:

Widespread corruption and poor governance mire poor nations in hopeless poverty.

  Unfortunately, many ethical questions are far from clear cut. They are often subject to contradictory influences and ideologically charged beliefs.
  &
  The CD has a useful brief review of the common core values and broadly agreed principles that can provide guidance in working through individual moral dilemmas. Life, liberty, justice, equity, mutual respect, caring, and integrity - the "golden rule" (Do unto others what you would have them do unto you.) - the "categorical imperative" (Applicable rules should apply to all.) - and the "utilitarian principle" (The greatest good for the greatest number of people.) are all broadly accepted values and principles. This is expanded by futurists to include the interests of future generations.
  &
  Even with this guidance, ambiguities and dilemmas remain common. However, there is little ambiguity in the need to combat blatant corruption and poor governance.
  &
  Widespread corruption and poor governance mire poor nations in hopeless poverty. They limit the progress of many of the Asian Tigers and nations transitioning from communist or socialist to market systems. Despotic strongmen and single party systems frequently pillage their people and their economic systems.
  &
  The result all too often is gross misallocation of resources - shortfalls in food, water, shelter, energy and other essential resources - widespread disrespect for authority - inability to even begin to deal with sanitation and environmental problems - and widespread hopelessness.

 Two important strategies applicable to the corruption problem were omitted.

• Adequate pay for low level bureaucrats is essential for any hope in reducing the pervasive low level corruption that smothers economic activity in most poor nations; and

• Making local political entities dependent for their funds on taxes from the local economy is essential to give local politicians a stake in the economic success of their constituents.

Here, again, there is an evident lack of appreciation for the absolute need for all of the mechanisms of political and economic freedom that are responsible for the success of advanced nations.

While hardly utopian, capitalism is the only practicable national and international economic system that reinforces ethical conduct  with respect to the vast majority of economic transactions, and creates a demand for good governance and rule based legal systems.

  The segment suggests the usual  education and propaganda efforts advocating ethical conduct, and this is certainly commendable. Incredibly, however, with the exception of a brief reference in the Regional Perspective for Latin America, it omits the absolute need for all of the mechanisms of political and economic freedom that are responsible for the success of advanced nations. The Indicators of Progress include only multiparty democracy, although several of the other indicators would depend on enforceable civil rights. 

  While these mechanisms obviously do not apply to all ethical questions and are hardly perfect, appropriate levels of ethics are impossible without them.

• Multiparty democratic systems limit official corruption by permitting the people to periodically "kick the bastards out."

• Civil rights are essential for popular empowerment and the establishment of legitimacy for those in authority. Individual citizens must feel that they have a personal stake in the way in which the nation is run and business is conducted.

• Rule-based legal systems that provide reliable enforcement of civil rights - as well as  property, creditor, contract and other commercial rights - are essential for civic empowerment and any economic progress.

• Capitalist systems assure widespread ethical behavior between customers and suppliers all along the chain of production and distribution in all instances where repeat business is important. While hardly utopian, capitalism is the only practicable national and international economic system that reinforces ethical conduct  with respect to the vast majority of economic transactions, and creates a demand for good governance and rule based legal systems. It provides the resources for adequate civil service and middle management pay levels that are essential to overcome the pervasive petty corruption that stifles economic systems.

  The wheels of capitalist commerce are lubricated by trust. Every day, the miracle of capitalism generates billions of dollars in commercial flows on nothing more than phone calls and established relationships. That's why occasional instances of fraud are so surprising, upsetting, and successful.
  &
  Capitalist markets inexorably punish systems afflicted by widespread corruption and arbitrary governance. Each of these mechanisms reinforces the others. Indeed, it is hard to see how any of them can be fully effective if they are not all given effect. However, many nations are currently attempting to run capitalist systems under single party authoritarian governance.

Global long-term perspectives:

 There is also a degree of public cynicism about future concerns because of the record of phony forecasts used in the past for political and ideological propaganda purposes.

  This segment only scratches the surface of the many obvious inherent real world obstacles to bureaucratic and political decision making that will always limit the effectiveness of administered policies. As explained above, government is inherently inefficient.
  &
  Thus, here is another vital reason to make maximum use of profit driven market directed economic decisionmaking mechanisms.

  The important, ongoing and widespread restructuring of governance responsibilities that is occurring in response to the complexities of modern life is predominantly covered in the CD part of the "Capacity to Decide" Global Challenge (see "Decisionmaking processes," below).

Decisionmaking processes:

Despite significant advances for internationalization, devolution, and privatization, there is so far no indication of an inclination at the national level to surrender the real essence of national sovereignty - the powers to tax, enter and break treaties, apply military force, establish domestic legal frameworks, and insist on popular allegiance.

  The important, ongoing and widespread restructuring of governance responsibilities that is occurring in response to the complexities of modern life is covered in the CD. Global governance - based on trans/ intergovernmental institutions and mechanisms for standards, protocols for coordinating actions between institutions and governments of different countries, and regional trade agreements - expands steadily. Privatization movements continue. In many advanced nations, local responsibilities are being devolved to lower governments that are closer to the people. 

  So far, these opposite tendencies have proceeded within pragmatic limits, with no indication of an inclination at the national level to surrender the real essence of national sovereignty - the powers to tax, enter and break treaties, apply military force, establish domestic legal frameworks, and insist on popular allegiance.
  &
  Revealingly, devolution and privatization are omitted from the Suggested Actions, while a wide variety of international and domestic administered efforts are emphasized.
  &
  Again, there is a lack of appreciation for the undeniable fact that government decision making processes are inherently inefficient and ineffective.
  &
  This doesn't, of course, mean that we can dispense with government. Indeed, as repeatedly pointed out, good governance that facilitates commerce is essential. Government also cannot shirk its obligation to fill in many of the perceived gaps where that is feasible and unlikely to cause more harm than good. 

  However, it does mean that where effective alternatives exist, they must be utilized, even if the results fail to achieve utopian perfection.

Very long term scenarios:

  With respect to the very long term outlook - extending as long as 1,000 years - the book candidly views this part of the project more as an intellectual exercise than as providing reliable or practical information.
 &

Those who foresee chronic energy shortages are simply confessing their ignorance of economics.

Ignorance of basic economics:

The allocation of scarce resources is what markets do better - and fairer - than any administered effort.

  Four of the "Global Challenges" are not - and will not be - "challenges" for market economies.

  Only policymakers in nations that fail to facilitate profit driven, market directed commerce - or those seeking egalitarian outcomes - will find "challenges" here. For them, these challenges - like so many others - will undoubtedly be overwhelming. The allocation of scarce resources is what markets do better - and fairer - than any command economy effort - regardless of any nonsensical utopian dogma with which administered approaches may be advocated.

Energy availability:

Efficiency of use will increase faster than energy prices, so that the energy/GDP ratio - adjusted for inflation - will keep improving in market economies.

 

  Although there is a cyclical pattern to the energy market because of the long lead times on the supply side - there is no chronic energy shortage and there will be no chronic energy shortage for market economies unless government interference of one kind or another creates one (as presently in California). Energy prices may rise in real terms over time, but efficiency of use will increase faster, so that the energy/GDP ratio - adjusted for inflation - will keep improving in market economies.
 &
  A government role exists in funding clean energy R&D and establishing appropriate clean energy market incentives.
 &

Information and communications technology:

  Already, a good computer can be obtained for little more than the cost of a color TV, and internet access costs significantly less than cable TV.

An excellent computer can be obtained for little more than the cost of a color TV, and internet access costs significantly less than cable TV.

  The miracle of capitalism is working visible wonders in rapidly expanding both capacity and access at rapidly declining costs. Governments in market economies need only provide the same good governance needed for all aspects of profit driven, market directed commerce, and fill in the perceived gaps - such as assuring appropriate technology for schools and libraries. These gaps are small and declining and no particular drain on available resources.

Basic research and applied technology:

Technology is not a "challenge" in nations that provide patent protection and facilitate market economies - but those that don't will continue to be left in the dust.

  Widespread access to the benefits of scientific and technological advances will be facilitated by market forces. Protection of intellectual property and facilitation of profit driven market directed commerce makes the United States the world's undisputed technological leader - spreads the benefits of advances rapidly and broadly - and provides the government and various scientific entities with resources for basic research.
 &
  This segment reviews the bewildering array of scientific advances and efforts currently being pursued in the advanced capitalist nations. This is not a "challenge" in nations that provide patent protection and facilitate market economies - but those that don't will continue to be left in the dust. Even in the old Soviet Union - where scientific genius achieved many wonders of basic research - there was almost no ability to bring advances to market to benefit ordinary citizens.
 &
  Incredibly, the need for protection of intellectual property (patents) is omitted from many of the Regional Perspectives, although the number of patents granted is encouragingly included in the Indicators of Progress.

Rich - poor gap:

  Poor nations that adopt good governance practices that facilitate profit driven, market directed commerce will catch up with rich nations - and those that don't won't.

  Poor nations that adopt good governance practices that facilitate profit driven, market directed commerce will catch up with rich nations, and those that don't won't - and there is nothing that can alter this obvious fact. However, within prosperous market economies, income inequality will continue to widen as technological advances benefit all who participate in economic activity - but benefit most those who enjoy the greatest increases in  productivity.
 &
  Determined efforts to achieve egalitarian outcomes materially reduce economic performance and inevitably suppress the vast majority of the affected population. The egalitarian fallacy is a creator of intractable challenges - it is not the answer to any challenges.
 &

  Thus, the project really poses only 11 "Global Challenges" worthy of consideration.

 Additional "Global Challenges:"

 The project glaringly omits two obvious governance challenges - despite including three other "Global Challenges" relating to governance. As one commentator cogently put it:

"The issue of decision making is central to all the other challenges."

The economic good governance challenge:

Only in a country where human rights and property rights are protected, government is accountable, and those affected by decisions play a role in the decision-making process, is there real hope that poverty can be reduced, conflict avoided, and capital mobilized.

 Good governance that facilitates capitalist markets is one of the most obvious and pervasively important Global Challenges of the next century.
 &
  Many of the Global Challenges listed include facets of good economic governance, and they are repeatedly and realistically included in the Regional Perspectives for Africa and Asia. Civil service reform - rule based legal systems - accounting and decision making transparency - democratization - education - pervasive ethical values - press freedom - minority rights - are among the many governance reforms needed if poor nations are to progress. Unfortunately, this list omits many vital economic governance measures.

  "Emphasizing the need to improve the quality of governance in Africa, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan stressed that only in a country where human rights and property rights are protected, government is accountable, and those affected by decisions play a role in the decision-making process, [is there] real hope that poverty can be reduced, conflict avoided, and capital mobilized."
 &
  "Poor governance, the Asian Development Bank says, has contributed to regional poverty, as ineffective governments are unlikely to make physical and social infrastructure investments."

 Inherent inefficiency of government decisionmaking: 

  Unfortunately, major weaknesses afflict three of the most important of the 11 remaining "Global Challenges" segments.

Population growth and resources:

• The problem of aging populations simply gets the question wrong. If you don't ask the right question, you can't get a valid answer.

The real issue is the average age and duration of fragility.

  The increase in the total and percentage of population over 60 - a practically meaningless statistic - is the focus of the segment.

  The average age and duration of fragility is the real issue. People live longer because they are healthier. This not only delays death, it also delays the onset of fragility and increases the period of economic productivity.
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  Once the question is properly focused on fragility, the potential for vast improvements becomes apparent. Dealing with bone loss problems is an essential part of NASA research because it is a prerequisite to space travel. Interest in memory loss research is widespread, as this problem threatens everybody. Progress in just these two areas would have a major beneficial impact.

• Obstacles to profit driven market directed commerce are totally ignored by this segment.

Capitalist prosperity is essential to induce population stabilization and provide the resources for dealing with environmental problems.

  The need for increased income and the existence of a variety of material needs are repeatedly recognized, but the impossibility of providing them without capitalist commerce is incredibly omitted.

  Capitalist prosperity is essential to induce population stabilization and provide the resources for dealing with environmental problems. This segment - especially in the CD - repeatedly lists complex and unyielding obstacles to effective administered economic policies - never even considering how many of these obstacles are routinely dealt with by profit driven market directed commerce.

• Egalitarian envy rears its ugly head in this and some other segments. Envy is the most self defeating of vices.

Economics is not a zero sum game. The poor are not poor because the rich are rich.   

There should be shame at the failure to open rich world markets to poor world exports. There should also be shame for the unconscionable complicity of rich world Keynesian policies in overloading poor world nations with unsupportable levels of debt.

  The book frets that the average American consumes many times more resources than the average Indian. 

  Well, of course they do. That's because  the average American produces many times more goods and services than the average Indian.
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  Economics is not a zero sum game. The poor are not poor because the rich are rich. The rich world need not feel shame for its prosperity. Indeed, the poor benefit greatly by having rich people and rich nations to sell their goods and services to.
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  However, there should be shame at the failure to open rich world markets to poor world exports. There should also be shame for the unconscionable complicity of rich world Keynesian policies in overloading poor nations with unsupportable levels of debt.  One of the greatest and most catastrophic intellectual stupidities of all time was the absurd Keynesian expectation that vast sums lent to third world governments about 20 years ago would be well spent in development projects. 

  The Regional Perspective for Africa in the CD accurately recognizes this often overlooked point. The book and CD correctly include free trade and appropriate debt relief for poor countries as basic strategies for dealing with future challenges. "Too many developing countries do not have funds for basic education and health because they lack trade outlets and are burdened by foreign debt."

• The Malthusian fallacy is amazingly still treated seriously in this and other segments.

  Land may indeed be finite, but the amount of human and financial capital that can be invested in the land is infinite and by far the more important figure.

 Problems of chronic hunger and poverty are never problems of production. They are always problems of distribution.

  The entire question of population growth is viewed in terms of Malthusian inadequacy of resources.  In this and other segments, the book frets about the problem of feeding and otherwise providing for1.3 billion Chinese on the produce of China's restricted amount of arable land. 

  Land may indeed be finite, but the amount of human and financial capital that can be invested in the land is infinite and by far the more important figure. ("With each additional mouth, comes two additional hands.") Feeding 22% of the world's population with 7% of the world's arable land is no problem.
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  Recent reports out of China indicate that the inevitable errors in establishing administered agricultural prices - this time at above market rates - has this time induced Chinese farmers to flood the nation with excess agricultural produce. A reported surplus estimated at 362 million metric tons of wheat, corn, rice and other grains now overflows limited storage capacity and frequently rots for lack of adequate storage, marketing and transportation.
 &
  China is already the 6th greatest exporter of agricultural produce. Export of its abundant inexpensive agricultural produce has already become a serious threat to Japan's coddled agricultural market. Instead of the Malthusian fears of Chinese agricultural shortfalls - and despite the regional draughts or floods customary for China - world markets could be depressed by vast amounts of subsidized Chinese agricultural exports.
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  Problems of chronic hunger and poverty are never problems of production. They are always problems of distribution that simply disappear when good governance provides adequate transportation and communications infrastructure and facilitates profit driven market directed (capitalist) commerce. Where governance is misdirected - mired in conflict - or essentially nonexistent - markets fail or become dysfunctional, transportation and communications infrastructure deteriorates, and people starve and live in hopeless poverty.
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  Assistance with acute problems is of course desirable, but it is just a waste to send assistance to deal with chronic problems where governance issues are not being addressed.

Environmental problems of economic development:

Only where markets are nonexistence or dysfunctional is economic development a "challenge" and environmental degradation  an intractable and growing crisis.

  A Regional Perspective from India in the CD contains a long lament about the abject failure of that nation's 50 years of command economics, and the impossible morass of complex problems created by command economy approaches to economic development and environmental policy.

  However, this segment still incredibly fails to draw the obvious conclusion that resort to capitalist market mechanisms and the facilitation of profit driven market directed commerce is the only answer to the complex problems of economic development and environmental policy.

  A vast array of dubious regulatory schemes - a staggering array of new taxes - reliance on nonexistent international enforcement - as well as occasional realistic evaluations of effectiveness and political viability - and some actually good ideas - are suggested in the CD.
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  As the CD segment properly notes:

  "The debate between the market approach versus central economic planning is over; now the question is how best to make the market work for sustainable development in an increasingly global economy."

Although there are cyclical fluctuations because of long lead times on the supply side of the oil market, oil reserves will always average something above 15 years of supply.

There are no better ways to destroy the capitalist prosperity on which all else depends than attempts at national self sufficiency and the disruption of financing mechanisms.

It is not possible to achieve economic growth through administered solutions.

Conditionality is a prescription for paralysis. Tying various policies to environmental and labor conditions is indeed being widely used to achieve paralysis. 

  The segment properly notes that environmental problems threaten humanity. It properly views economic growth as an essential factor in limiting population growth and providing the resources for dealing with environmental problems. It recommends the abolition of "environmentally inefficient subsidies." (Good Luck!) It also recommends a variety of reasonable government and NGO policies and R&D efforts of varying utility for environmental policy and needed economic development.

• Use of pricing mechanisms (internalizing environmental externalities).

• Education and economic empowerment of women.

• Keeping track of forests and fisheries.

• Development of parks and ecological reserves.

• Private property and private ownership rights to give people a stake in local environmental matters.

• Antitrust enforcement against monopolies and cartels.

• Tariff reductions for exports from developing countries.

  However, the segment suffers from ambiguous ungrammatical doublespeak that accurately reflects its pervasive fuzzy thinking and failure to formulate precise questions.

• Sustainable development is the most important "goal for uniting humanity and its institutions." (Does that mean that sustainable development that does not unite humanity is a failure?)

• Sustainability efforts should include "acquiring the rights" to "innovate" green technologies. (Perhaps they can also be sold the "rights" to travel over the toll free Brooklyn Bridge? If this really is intended to mean "use" or "apply," then all that is needed is appropriate market mechanisms assisted where needed by aid. People can't eat technology. They must sell it in the market to make it pay.

  The segment suffers from a deplorable ignorance of economics and from obvious denial of the inherent limits of political (administered) decision making capabilities.

• A suggested key indicator of progress is the amount of petroleum reserves. (Although there are cyclical fluctuations because of long lead times on the supply side of the oil market, oil reserves will always average something above 15 years of supply. If you don't understand this, you should retake economics 101.)

• Another indicator is "total and per capita energy consumption by type of user." (The pertinent energy indicator is the energy/GDP ratio that indicates efficiency of use. The suggested indicator views negatively all essential economic development.)

• The lack of appreciation for precise thinking is taken to astounding heights in the European Regional Perspective, which blithely extends the question to "ecologically, economically, socially, and culturally" sustainable development - and then adds the further complication of an egalitarian requirement that it be "achieved for all." (Why not throw in a few more modest objectives - like permitting the Red Sox to win a World Series? All that's needed is a little pixie dust, and we can all fly.)

• In the CD, the European Regional Perspective calls for "enhanced self sufficiency," and reductions in the economic role of financial institutions. (More deplorable ignorance of basic economics. There are no better ways to destroy the capitalist prosperity on which all else depends.) The Czech segment also incredibly touts  self sufficiency and demonstrates ignorance of the vast benefits of world trade.

• The failure of "traditional political institutions" to effectively administer the "global commons" is deplored in the Asia and Oceania Regional Perspective. (So, what else is new? "What everybody owns, nobody owns.")

• Integrated development approaches "funded by international agencies" are recommended in the Latin American Regional Perspective. The African Regional Perspective, set forth fully in the CD, also lacks an understanding of the impossibility of achieving economic growth through administered solutions. 

• The North American Regional Perspective frets about the need to "change complacency and greed of the masses and reduce consumption while increasing efficiency and improving living standards." (The "masses" of North America overwhelmingly support reasonable environmental measures that significantly raise a wide variety of prices. However, they rightly will not be satisfied with a cramped immobile lifestyle of lofty intellectual and spiritual contemplation.)

• All other national and international public policies and relations should be tied to environmental policies. (Conditionality is a prescription for paralysis. Indeed - along with insistence on "labor standards" - there are many who use this approach as a means of achieving paralysis.)

  The "Meta Strategies" chapter includes a suggestion that new legal principals be developed for compensation of victims of pollution and other environmental damage. Typically, the CD dwells on criminal law enforcement or administered solutions.

 Unmentioned, however, are the self enforcing mechanisms of riparian rights and nuisance law. According downstream users and neighboring landholders reasonable enforcement rights against upstream and neighboring polluters could efficiently resolve a lot of problems.
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  Of course, even this is not without major difficulties. Just what is "reasonable?"

Peace and conflict resolution:

  Civil war is becoming increasingly widespread as international conflict sharply recedes, as this Global Challenge segment properly points out. However,  it overstates the current scope of the terrorism problem.

  Actually, outside the sad arenas of ongoing civil wars, the number of terrorist incidents has declined markedly since the end of the Cold War and cessation of Soviet support for terrorist organizations. 

  The book does include some fairly accurate assessment of current problems and threats and recent progress, but then staggers into a listing of suggested strategies that can only be described as unreal.

  "We could ---" (Who is "we?")

• "agree when local violence warrants international intervention," (Would this extend to areas like Chechnya and Tibet, or would only violence involving small nations qualify?)

• "destroy existing stockpiles of biological weapons," (Are we going to go to war with Iraq or North Korea or similar miscreants to do this? How will we know if such weapons have in fact been destroyed?)

• "design smarter sanctions that target elite criminals rather than innocent populations," (What could be easier? Why didn't we think of that before?)

• "prevent political leaders from storing their money in Swiss bank accounts and villas on the Riviera," (That will take them all of 10 seconds to get around. If we make them international outlaws, how will we ever get them to peacefully resign?)

• "increase the use of non lethal weapons," (How sweet. We can have war without all that atrocious blood and gore. Actually, we may see robots contesting for control of battlefields - which will nevertheless remain deadly.)

• "and study and implement best practices for reducing corruption and collective violence." (We already know this. It includes multiparty democracy, capitalism, rule-base independent legal systems, property rights, civil empowerment, and adequate pay for civil service.)

• More aggressive use of U.N. force, to stop violence, is also suggested. (Whose children should be asked to volunteer to fight under U.N. command?)

  The Regional Perspectives include similar examples of fuzzy thinking.

• "The EU has to become more sure of itself. NATO expansion should include Russia and the Ukraine." (Unfortunately, there are a few governance problems that have to be addressed first.)

• "Mass destruction from genetic engineering, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence will become increasingly available in the future and will have more potential to destroy civilization than nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons do." (Luddites live!)

• Economic inequality is an indicator of impending conflict. (Another absurd stab at promoting egalitarian policies. See "Egalitarianism," below.)

Editing:

Ignorance:

  How can any reliable vision of the future be based on such ignorance?

• The old Marxist "automation" scare (automation will destroy more jobs than it creates) is given credence - right next to submissions that point out the vast employment opportunities in new industries and in servicing the needs of the retired and elderly.

•  Malthusian fears are raised - especially with respect to China.

• Energy shortage fears are raised - in a universe that is literally bathed in energy.

• Many of the participants in this project seem to be in denial about the absolutely essential need for market economics.

• Many of the segments advocate sanctions against nations that do not cooperate with suggested solutions. That sanctions invariably fail - and hurt those imposing the sanctions more than those being sanctioned - unless the sanctions are almost universally supported - goes totally unmentioned. That sanctions always hurt the innocent far more than the guilty is only occasionally recognized.

Egalitarianism:

It is the hopeless poverty of command economy systems and dysfunctional markets that breeds strife - not inequality.

  Since egalitarian outcomes are not produced by market mechanisms, the administered approaches needed for egalitarian efforts are likely to succeed only in catastrophically reducing the results achievable for the vast majority and in rendering impossible the challenges it is attached to.
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  Incredibly, a list of the five most important factors that determine poverty fails to include poor governance and failure to facilitate profit driven, market directed commerce.

  A basic premise of the egalitarian argument is that the growing gap between the rich and poor "is the primary cause of social instability," and threatens "political and social uprisings, increased urban violence, and the potential for civil wars." 

  This is patently absurd. This "Wooden Horse" is neither big nor threatening. It is the hopeless poverty of command economy systems and dysfunctional markets that breeds strife.
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  It is conceded in the CD that the rising gap in the U.S. has not caused instability. That's because all of the working poor have reason for hope. Every population segment - except those who do not work at all - is doing better over time and has opportunities to move up. Statistics to the contrary are obviously phony.

Command economics:

Poor nations need only facilitate commerce and invite in foreign investment to automatically benefit from the "partnerships for progress" of capitalism.

Without conditions that encourage private investment, no other policies can achieve economic development. Only national and local governments can provide the good governance that creates such conditions.

  Many people simply remain in denial. Repeatedly, dubious and difficult administered strategies are suggested where market mechanisms would function well.

• "India needs long-term planning and an R&D consortium to sort out its [economic] options." (A return to the glory days of the "five year plan.")

• "In the poorer sections we need advice from international organizations like World Bank and experts from developed countries, the establishment of high-quality policy making in institutions of the government, - - -." (What is needed is government facilitated capitalist market mechanisms.)

• "Promote - - - economic development by encouraging a 'global partnership for development' between high-income countries and those with less industrial and entrepreneurial cultures." (Culture has almost nothing to do with it, folks. Poor nations need only facilitate commerce and invite in foreign investment to automatically benefit from the "partnerships for progress" of capitalism.

• Integrated development approaches "funded by international agencies" are recommended for Latin America.  (Such international funding was attempted - with predictably spectacular failures - about two decades ago. Without conditions that encourage private investment, nothing else works. Only national and local governments can provide the good governance that creates such conditions. International bureaucracies are bound to be more distant, out of touch, and ineffective than national and local government agencies, and can never replace private investment.)

• The best solution [for international crime] is prevention in the form of contributions of the rich countries for development programs to eradicate poverty in Third World. (Just throw enough money at the problem, and it will be solved.)

Economic "rights:"

 Those who advocate a variety of "rights" to economic goods and services have unfortunately been provided credence in this project.

• There should be a "right" to internet access.

• There should be a "right" to clean air, water, and land.

• There should be a "right" to quality health care.

After the widespread and disastrous socialist experiments of the 20th century, intelligent people - and especially those claiming to be "futurists" - should be familiar with the reasons for failure.

  Then, lawyers can litigate every vaguely related economic and political decision all the way to the Supreme Court and completely wrap the world in red tape. As with all "entitlements," control over the budgets for these efforts would essentially be taken out of the hands of elected legislators and given to unelected judges and lawyers.

  The CD notes that the tendency to establish quality heath care as a "right" is increasing - and correctly foresees that this will remain an intractable problem.

  There are reasons why socialism failed. After the widespread and disastrous socialist experiments of the 20th century, intelligent people - and especially those claiming to be "futurists" - should be familiar with those reasons.

Restrictions on international money markets:

  The screaming that you hear about those "untamed" money markets is coming from the politicians who are being forced by those "untamed" money markets - indeed, they are being dragged kicking and screaming all the way - to establish the good governance practices that they dearly wish to avoid.

  Thank god for those "untamed" money markets. They inevitably will continue to penalize bad governance practices until reluctant politicians are forced to maintain responsible monetary and budgetary policies and provide reasonable levels of political and economic freedom, rule-based legal systems and economic opportunity "for all."
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Accounting for externalities:

  A naif suggestion. Unfortunately, there is widespread intellectual ignorance about the inherent limitations of accounting. (See Economic Statistics and  Macro Econometrics: The Figures Lie," in this month's issue of FUTURECASTS.)
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  You cannot build "sciences" on the basis of data derived from a nebulous "art" like accounting. Any effort to do so inevitably amounts to "Big Lie" propaganda.

Ideological clichés:

• "The US spends five times more on defense than environment; Russia spends 50 times more." (Is there anything more polluting that the conflicts in Central Asia and sub Saharan Africa where US strength doesn't reach?)

• Various currency manipulation schemes are given credence.

• "Capitalism has destroyed the borderlines between legal and criminal behavior. The real terrorists, if you define them according to the number of their victims, are Western governments and their international instruments (G-7...)." (What about the billions of victims of command economy failures? ONLY capitalism has demonstrated an ability to greatly diminish poverty and free individuals from dependence on the tender mercies of governments. ONLY capitalism establishes commercial relationships that reinforce ethical conduct.)