April, 2018
www.futurecasts.com

Mugged by reality!

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  Yehezkel Dror no longer believes that 21st century challenges can be adequately managed by modern governance arrangements. Even radical transformations that strengthen the capacity to govern, as discussed in his prior book, "The Capacity to Govern," are revealed by current events to be clearly inadequate.
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A benevolent global autocratic system of governance is needed "to save humanity from itself."

  Nevertheless. Dror doubles down, continuing his reliance on a sophisticated scheme of public education and extensive indoctrination to remake and unify public values and vastly increase the capacity to govern of an elite autocratic political leadership.  Much of his hopes and reasoning for his support of eventually autocratic central government - eventually on a global scale - are carried over from his previous work.
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  Still the catastrophist, his ultimate hope is the development of a benevolent global autocratic governance system capable of saving humanity from natural catastrophic threats and threats from its own uncontrolled technological and economic development.
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  Dror has been mugged by reality. For Dror, a prominent academic, philosopher of political governance and member of the Club of Rome, with a record of catastrophist sentiments, being mugged by reality is nothing new.
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  At present, reality is most starkly demonstrated across the border from his Israeli homeland. While this has left him profoundly pessimistic, he is not yet ready to concede that nothing can be done.
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  In Syria, tragedies thought beyond contemplation in the modern world have become commonplace. Years of military conflict involving daily examples of conduct deemed "war crimes" by the founders and supporters of powerless international tribunals clearly demonstrate the futility of the United Nations, the statesmen of the world, and worldwide public sympathy. Mismanagement of conflicts in Iraq and Libya demonstrate "beyond any shadow of a doubt" the limited capabilities of political leaders even when confronted with just the standard conflicts of the modern world.
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  Dror thus advocates a version of benevolent despotism, ultimately on a global scale, to direct the international response to global threats and, along the way, implement much of the liberal agenda.

    The writ of the war crimes tribunals clearly do not run to the Middle East. Syria is clearly beyond the pale. Without enforcement efforts by the United States, the talk of international law is revealed to be just idealistic propaganda and naive philosophizing. The United States is revealed by its current limitations to be still the essential nation for establishment and maintenance of an orderly world. Where its influence is withdrawn or weak, bad things happen.
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  Without a cop on the beat, there is no law! Without law, there is no justice!

Catastrophist fears:

  Catastrophist concerns now dominate Dror's work. Indeed, Dror raises catastrophist concerns to the level of a primary guiding principle.
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Prevention of such catastrophes and preservation of the human species is thus the "overriding first duty" of leadership.

  He provides a list of some of the ways - most admittedly unlikely - in which modern science and technology threaten man's future and even man's existence. They involve human choices and errors rather than inevitable occurrences. Prevention of such catastrophes and preservation of the human species is thus the "overriding first duty" of leadership.

• "Synthesis in a kitchen laboratory and diffusion of an air-carried lethal virus immune to all antidotes by a doomsday sect wishing to rid Caia of humanity.

• Production of 'super-intelligent' robots who take over the world and eliminate humanity.

• A high-powered physical experiment causes an Earth-destructing chain reaction.

• Nanorobots get out of control and kill all humans.

• The  impact of a large body from space, which could have been prevented by timely countermeasures, kills most of life on Earth including all humans.

• Far from unlikely, a nuclear war making Earth uninhabitable for humans."

Dror invokes the automation fear.

Left wing ideologues are forever searching for reasons to substitute human administered alternatives that government can dominate for market mechanisms that must be facilitated rather than dominated. Indeed, Dror's catastrophist fears become a convenient all-purpose justification for a wide variety of ideological agenda items.

  Examples of less existential but still catastrophic events that must be prevented are provided by Dror. They include human caused catastrophes and "milder versions of the terminal contingencies." (The super-volcano under Yellowstone, for example, may be several tens of thousands of years overdue.)

•  Dror invokes the fear of scarcity of essential materials as populations increase. ("Peak oil" anyone? Remember that American energy policy during the 1970s actually reinforced the impact of the OPEC oil embargo instead of dealing with it.)

• Molecular engineering may change cheap materials into currently valuable commodities such as diamonds and gold. "Socio-economic havoc" is sure to follow, according to Dror. (Market adjustments will be far more effective than any administered alternative.)

• Dror invokes fears that automation will eliminate even white-collar jobs causing "disruptive and also bloody social turmoil."

  Dror reveals himself to be a modern Luddite, deplorably ignorant of basic economics. Automation inevitably creates more jobs than it destroys, although government and academic "experts," from Karl Marx (automation in textiles) to Paul Samuelson (the paperless office) and now Dror, were and remain clueless to the possibilities. See, Karl Marx, Capital (Das Kapital)(vol I)(II), at segment on "Worker revolt." The new economic possibilities and jobs are always readily revealed to ordinary entrepreneurs by routine competitive market mechanisms.
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  Dror also here descends into left wing stupidity, revealing a typical lack of appreciation for capitalist market economic capabilities. Left wing ideologues are forever searching for reasons to substitute human administered alternatives that government can dominate for market mechanisms that must be facilitated rather than dominated
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  Indeed, Dror's catastrophist fears become a convenient all-purpose justification for a wide variety of ideological agenda items.
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  There is much that capitalist markets do not do, but supply and demand is something they accomplish too well to support these imagined left wing economic fears and perceived threats. For problems outside this economic realm, we are unfortunately left with nothing better than government and private institutional administered approaches and remedies, which generally promise far more than they deliver.

  Egalitarian fears are also invoked. An "intolerable" lack of access to human enhancements that may, among other things, extend life and improve biological capabilities, added to socio-economic inequality, may create "explosive issues."

  Envy is the most self defeating of the common vices, and ideologues of all stripes unconscionably play on it. Market competition drives costs down and spreads benefits faster and far more efficiently than any administered alternative. Ideologues play on envy during the brief periods when that is occurring. To achieve ideological and political objectives, Dror advises shameless use of the envy card.
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  Remember fears of personal computer and internet access inequality? Remember, there was only one generation between the first expensive hand-crafted automobiles and Henry Ford's automobiles for the masses. Remember how fast air travel became affordable for the masses after deregulation?

People will not support environmental programs that deal with tomorrow's problems if they are worried about putting food on the table today or are resentful of government obstruction of their ordinary material ambitions.

  It is thus the possibility of disastrous levels of climate change and other environmental disasters due to human economic activity that remain as credible threats to humanity.

  This is the current left wing favorite for supporting administered economic interventions that displace market mechanisms. At the extreme left, climate change and other environmental fears are viewed as convenient levers for disrupting capitalist systems.
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  However, a prosperous economy is essential to gain public support for all kinds of environmental programs, and only capitalist market mechanisms can provide such prosperity. Electorates will not support environmental programs that deal with tomorrow's problems if they are worried about putting food on the table today or are resentful of government obstruction of their ordinary material ambitions.
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  Technology has caused the pertinent types of pollution and technology must ultimately deal with it. Encouraging appropriate cost-effective technological development and deployment is something existing forms of governments can and should do. Popular public pressures on existing forms of government have proven encouragingly effective in furthering environmental programs with observably beneficial impacts on air and water quality. Autocratic systems completely sheltered from public pressure are unlikely to do better, as the environmental problems revealed by the collapse of the Soviet Union and other socialist autocracies around the world demonstrated.

Governments must reduce the risks, "with absolute priority to prevent species self-destruction, while facilitating novel forms of thriving."

   Technological advances can "enable unimaginable pluralistic human thriving," Dror recognizes. but only if governments reduce the risks, "with absolute priority to prevent species self-destruction, while facilitating novel forms of thriving."

  "Homo sapiens long-term thriving, and, first of all, the survival of the human species is the measure of all things."

Obsessive pondering of possible catastrophes:

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  An elite intellectual class must be developed and organized, and dedicated to continuously studying and pondering deeply about the array of catastrophist threats that currently appear impossible or that are currently unthinkable to most. At least some of these unlikely threats are "likely to happen in the foreseeable future," Dror points out.

  Dror does not herein deign to elaborate on either the organizational structure or financing of this fraternity.

This intellectual elite should be active in politics and ready take over control broadly and even worldwide when some major catastrophe destroys existing political cohesion.

  These intellectual leaders - Dror calls them "Homo sapiens governors" - should be action oriented people who involve themselves in all aspects of political, social and economic life. However, above all, this intellectual elite should be active in politics and ready to take over control broadly and even worldwide when some major catastrophe destroys existing political cohesion. Ultimate intentions may have to be initially hidden, but catastrophist fears must ultimately dominate human governance.

  "As long as immature public opinions dominate the political arena,  [Homo sapiens governors] often have no choice other than hiding their humanity craft endeavor behind a screen of doing what matters to the public. Enlightening them on what really makes a big difference is essential, but difficult, takes much time, and may require the harsh teachings of catastrophes."

  The "Promethean mission" is to save humanity from itself by developing and enforcing what Dror calls "humanity craft," which will require the acquisition of "a  plenitude of command clout." To fulfill adequately this "Promethean mission," these leaders will need, "in addition to very demanding personal, moral and intellectual virtues, much authority, a selectively commanding global governance base, and growing global public support--all subject to adequate safeguards." (Of course!)
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They have to be chosen through "self-anointment" and "self-legitimation" based on their superior qualities, learning, obsessive catastrophist concern, and preparations.

Perfectibility of a ruling elite:

  The perfectibility of a ruling elite is now Dror's narrowed hope and dream. The old left-wing dream of the perfectibility of human nature through "education" and "enlightenment" is frequently counterproductive and generally mere "brainwashing," he now concludes.
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They must develop "a radically novel global order" that includes "decisive global governance institutions." 

Such leaders would be expected to study deeply and ponder profoundly into catastrophist fears to enhance their chances to lead humanity to a better future, but above all else to assure the survival of the human race in the face of all the existential threats that may develop.

  The desired result is a secretive international fraternity of intellectual leaders that is intellectually and morally superior, learned, obsessively concerned with catastrophist fears, committed to the well being of mankind, and  hardened to the harshness that may be needed to grab and maintain control in a suddenly chaotic world. They must develop "a radically novel global order" that includes "decisive global governance institutions." 

  Inevitably, like religions and other types of ideologically committed political parties, Dror's intellectual fraternity would attract obsessive catastrophists and cynical opportunists and all shades and varieties of characters in between. Schism is inevitable, as in all theological systems, whether secular or sectarian.

  Dror provides a few paragons of virtue that he believes would have met his test: "Konrad Adenauer, Ehud Barak, Niels Bohr, Deng Xiaoping, Ricardo Diez-Hochleitner, Bill Gates, Mikhail Gorbachev, Al Gore, Dag Hammarskjold, Henry Kissinger, Vladimer Lenin, Nelson Mandela, Angela Merkel, Jean Monet, Alva and Gunner Myrdal, Jawaharlal Nehru, Barack Obama, Leo Szilard, Justin Trudeau and Lee Kuan Yew." (Enuf said!)
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  Such leaders would be expected to study deeply and ponder profoundly into catastrophist fears to enhance their chances to lead humanity to a better future, but above all else to assure the survival of the human race in the face of all the existential threats that may develop.

  Dror, himself, is in denial of the inherent ineptness of government administered alternatives to economic market mechanisms. This affliction would not be uncommon within his suggested leadership class and does not inspire confidence in their effectiveness.

It is possible to improve the quality of politics "without endangering democracy or other preferred political regimes."

To compensate the public for subjection to a system of global surveillance and ultimate loss of independence, a full panoply of liberal benefits should be provided to achieve egalitarian "fairness" and the enjoyment of extended self-realization opportunities.

  While awaiting their opportunity to take command, Dror advises promotion of just about all of the liberal economic and political reform agenda. It is possible to improve the quality of politics "without endangering democracy or other preferred political regimes." However, he warns that "most political leaders of the prevailing type will resist such reforms which are likely to deprive them of their positions, doing all they can to obstruct your efforts and, if they can, get rid of you."
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  To compensate the public for subjection to a system of global surveillance and ultimate loss of independence, a full panoply of liberal benefits should be provided to achieve egalitarian "fairness" and the enjoyment of extended self-realization opportunities.

  "If well managed then the [system] can with time supply a high standard of living for all in terms of good housing and food, a range of family life formats, company, sex, amusement, excitement, celebrities to admire and imitate, some sense of prevailing fairness, soft enhancement etc. . . . [Higher] self-realizing opportunities, largely supplied by free markets, academia, creators, spiritual leaders and private initiatives, [should be made available] to all able and willing to use them."

  Well managed command economics is an oxymoron. (See, Government futurecast, at Part II, "Government management.")

"A lot of blood and pain" is unavoidable. Dror recognizes that, when they take power,  they must of course be subjected to effective checks and balances, but he does not herein deign to specify.

Drod actually absurdly expects that his intellectual, priestly Jedi warriors will be able to master command economy mechanisms to achieve broad welfare objectives.

  Dror is not here just some woolly-headed intellectual. These intellectual, secular priestly Jedi warriors must be fully prepared to break some eggs to make their omelet. (Again, think of Lenin and the Bolsheviks.) "A lot of blood and pain" is unavoidable. Dror recognizes that, when they take power,  they must of course be subjected to effective checks and balances, but he does not herein deign to specify.

  How will they govern? How will power be transferred? Will some succumb to the temptations of the Dark Side?
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  The Catholic Church, dedicated to the work of God and the salvation of her people, has repeatedly fallen prey to each of the common human vices and invoked service to God to justify some of the vilest conduct. Marx engaged in unrelenting power struggles. The Bolsheviks continuously and ruthlessly eliminated dissent both within and outside their ranks and ultimately succumbed meekly to Stalin.
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   "Saving humanity from itself" can readily serve as justification for the most vile atrocities. See, Hayek, The Road to Serfdom. Associations of ambitious, ruthless, committed people professing some noble cause to justify even the most atrocious actions routinely become dominated by thuggish leadership like Vladimer Putin and Xi Jinping and the lesser thugs that have afflicted so many of the smaller nations. Is some Stalinist paradise of peoples cowed by catastrophist fears to be the ultimate fate of the human race?
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  Dror is not unmindful of the risk that catastrophist fears may be used for ideological and even Dark Side purposes. He even approves of its use for achieving egalitarian policies and certain other left-wing agenda items. He actually absurdly expects that his intellectual, priestly Jedi warriors will be able to master command economy mechanisms to achieve broad welfare objectives.

The precautionary principle:

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  The precautionary principle is invoked. Research and development that might conceivably produce "ultra-dangerous capacities," must be subjected to "strict prohibitions and restrictions" enforced "by major powers, a global surveillance system," with "an effective global intervention force." "Extensive regulation of production and diffusion of dangerous knowledge and tools" is required.
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Such groups and people cannot be deterred. Such "enemies of humanity" must be "hunted down, subjected to harsh interrogations, judged by special tribunals, and punished severely." "Prevention and elimination is a top priority, however costly in terms of values and resources."

  "Catastrophic and doomsday tools" may come "within the reach of fanatic states, small fanatic groups, and perhaps even lonely fanatic actors." This justifies implementation of the "ticking bomb" doctrine.
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  Such groups and people cannot be deterred. Such "enemies of humanity" must be "hunted down, subjected to harsh interrogations, judged by special tribunals, and punished severely." "Prevention and elimination is a top priority, however costly in terms of values and resources." (Think, the Catholic Church Inquisition!)

  "[P]reventive detention may sometimes be essential; 'profiling' is likely to be unavoidable; uses of the Internet have to be monitored; and it may in some cases be less bad to convict some innocent persons on the basis of a preponderance of evidence, rather than let millions of humans and perhaps humanity as a whole be destroyed by clinging to the 'beyond reasonable doubt' rule. Also, the death penalty may be justified against leading enemies of humanity."

Preventive wars may be justified even without the certainty that the need actually exists. The necessity for such "fuzzy gambling" is inevitable

Strenuous opposition is to be expected and ruthlessly suppressed. "Transgressors have to be hunted down and harshly punished - as enemies of humanity.".

  A "strict global security regime" as part of a "decisive global governance system" is needed but is clearly far beyond the capabilities of the United Nations. Preventive wars may be justified even without the certainty that the need actually exists. The necessity for such "fuzzy gambling" is inevitable.
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  Dror refers to the toppling of Saddam Hussein in the mistaken belief that Iraq possessed nuclear capabilities. He emphasizes the need to "strictly limit the production and availability of dangerous knowledge and tools."
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  Strenuous opposition is to be expected and ruthlessly suppressed. "Transgressors have to be hunted down and harshly punished - as enemies of humanity." (Big Brother would approve!)

  Being semi-secret and conspiratorial  - initially much like the Masons - Dror's proposed organization will undoubtedly generate suspicion and opposition even before it acquires political power. Being conspiratorial and secretly planning for autocratic political  control, it will generate the same kind of fear and loathing as did the Communist Party. It will be a Machiavellian organization asserting ethical purposes that justify unethical tactics.

  But Dror concedes the likely impossibility and considerable cost of this policy. Safeguards against extinction, such as the spread of humanity to other planets, will have to be pursued.
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Intellectual, secular priestly Jedi warriors should "closely monitor science and technology" research in such fields as artificial intelligence and robotics, human cloning, life creation, radical human life enhancement, materials transmutation with molecular engineering, fusion technology, genetic engineering, development of virtual worlds, cyber attack methods, search for intelligent life on other worlds. 

  Decision-making processes based on freedom and competition - free markets, democracy, and autonomous civil society associations - can continue but with limited applicability.

  "Self-regulating processes, such as free markets and science and technology, impact mainly unintentionally and in part increasingly dangerously on the future of humanity."

  Dror believes them clearly inadequate for the crucial future-influencing tasks that must be the province of global government and politics. He suggests that one of such tasks may include suspension of a wide variety of modern technological research and development "till humanity is riper" for dealing with the results. Significant segments of the public may require government protection from the disorienting and even mentally traumatic impact of dramatic advances in these fields.
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  Since intervention is unlikely to be initially accepted, his intellectual, secular, priestly Jedi warriors should "closely monitor science and technology" research in such fields as artificial intelligence and robotics, human cloning, life creation, radical human life enhancement, materials transmutation with molecular engineering, fusion technology, genetic engineering, development of virtual worlds, cyber attack methods, search for intelligent life on other worlds. Homo sapiens governors should be "ready to freeze them if this seems advisable and becomes feasible, probably following some dramatic incidents."

  "Pondering on what to do about such possibilities and preparing ideas for trauma-containing soulcraft are tasks for closed enclaves of spiritual-cultural leaders, carefully selected humanist thinkers, and prime [Homo sapiens governors] -- who, inconspicuously, may have to initiate such enclaves."

Education, indoctrination and propaganda:

  An industrial scale indoctrination, education and propaganda apparatus is contemplated by Dror. The public must ultimately be ideologically prepared to accept the global rule of these "Homo sapiens governors," and the governors themselves must constantly obsess on the catastrophist threats that justify their rule.
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Catastrophist theory should be the focus of think-tanks, university centers, research institutes, and brain trusts. The objective is to develop "a critical mass of highly qualified, full time, interdisciplinary and multi-experience staff."

"This needs delicate handling, so as to avoid the image of a clique out to rule the world." It should involve "formal and informal meetings, intense personal contacts, shared workshops and retreats, intranet, and similar interaction opportunities," to slowly build the party.

 "Also essential is, as already mentioned, some camouflaging of what you really do, which, however undesirable, is fully justified by consequential ethics."

  A widespread program of catastrophist studies must become a feature of school curricula and academic research, and an obsessive concern of political think tanks and policy formation efforts. While public perfectibility is no longer considered achievable, the public must still be "enlightened" and intellectually prepared to think of their concerns as a global collective rather than as individuals and "tribal" members.
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  "Humanity-craft professionals" must be prepared by means of university programs, the financing of pertinent research and internships, all focused on catastrophist possibilities and the ultimate political objectives. Catastrophist theory should be the focus of think-tanks, university centers, research institutes, and brain trusts. The objective is to develop "a critical mass of highly qualified, full time, interdisciplinary and multi-experience staff."
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  At the global level, a "global guidance cluster" is needed, which should include "carefully selected scientists and technology developers, spiritual and social leaders, entrepreneurs, artists and authors, mass media pundits, and free-floating intellectuals." It should be a politically correct group of a few hundreds, "from all civilizations, many under the age of 45, and about half being women."

  This elaborate and expensive intellectual bureaucracy will be a vast make-work project for academics and other intellectuals - and will inevitably involve the public financing of the most favored ideologies of the day. Inevitably - especially after a few spectacular policy failures - the public could wind up totally disgusted with a welter of meaningless and contradictory analyses.

  "This needs delicate handling, so as to avoid the image of a clique out to rule the world [which is precisely what it is]." It should involve "formal and informal meetings, intense personal contacts, shared workshops and retreats, intranet, and similar interaction opportunities," to slowly build the party.

  "Also essential is, as already mentioned, some camouflaging of what you really do, which, however undesirable, is fully justified by consequential ethics -- as you must not let widespread tribalism and ignorance endanger your Promethean mission."

  Ever the liberal, Dror stresses the importance of gaining public support for and implementation of much of the liberal agenda. These concerns carry over from his previous work.

Waiting for catastrophe:

   The ultimate objective is global governance. It concededly is probably unachievable until the chaotic aftermath of some worldwide catastrophe, but it should be prepared for in advance.
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  Laying the foundations for "limiting state sovereignty and empowering a decisive global governance system" should be current strategic objectives. The particular formats should be the subject of current political philosophy, "so that ripe ideas will be available when the clock of dire need, which is also the time of opportunity, strikes."

  "Post-catastrophe realities will determine what kind of global regime will emerge, ranging from an oligopoly of major powers to a kind of curbed, hopefully benevolent,  but-at-least partly authoritative Global Leviathan."

 The members of this secular clerisy  must be action oriented. They must have the self-confidence to make fateful decisions on the basis of incomplete information and amidst a profound inevitable uncertainty about the future.

  Dror believes that "an expanded subsidiarity principle" will be included so issues can be handled at the lowest competent level. However, "providing directives, setting of criteria, oversight, and override authority have to be reserved for global governance and, when necessary, imposed by it." Humanity cannot be saved from itself, he emphasizes, without such global governance.
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  Catastrophist possibilities provide the primary working assumption of these learned, secular priestly Jedi warriors. Such possibilities have to be planned for, prevented if possible, and mitigated if inevitable.
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  Even though there is no certainty anywhere, the members of this secular clerisy must be action oriented. They must have the self-confidence to make fateful decisions on the basis of incomplete information and amidst a profound inevitable uncertainty about the future.
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  Dror calls this "fuzzy gambling for high stakes." The preparation, will, and power to do this is, according to Dror, essential if this clerisy is "to take up the challenges of saving humanity from itself" as Homo sapiens governors.

  "Humanity stands in dire need to be saved from itself. Ergo, all who can help do so are not only permitted to act but morally obliged to do so."

The perfectibility of the members of this ruling elite is Dror's current basic hope, and he outlines their essential core qualities.

  The theological preparation and qualities of the ruling secular clerisy is emphasized by Dror. The perfectibility of the members of this ruling elite is his current basic hope, and he outlines their essential core qualities.
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  They must be schooled in priestly ethics and worldly knowledge. Learning, indoctrination and deep philosophical pondering about the future of mankind should be continuous and obsessive, supporting a sense of learned superiority and the right to govern.

  "There is no argument giving a living generation the right to make decisions impacting  on the fate of future generations, other than dire necessity. All the more so all such decisions must be made by highly responsible and fully qualified agents as if on behalf and for the human species--as [Homo sapiens governors] are supposed to be and do."

  They thus must combine the virtues of philosopher kings and intellectual Jedi knights. The invoking of such utopian dreams have forever been a primary means for inducing abandonment of existing democracy and similar inevitably messy and inefficient systems of freedom. So it has been since the children of Israel asked the Lord for a King.
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  Providing assurance that benevolent despotism will remain benevolent after regime changes is a problem that has never been adequately dealt with. There are always some "good old uncle Joe Stalin" and other thugs lurking.

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