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"Understanding the Economic Basics &
Modern Capitalism: Market Mechanisms and Administered
Alternatives" Smith:
Wealth of Nations. Ricardo: Principles.
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FUTURECASTS JOURNAL
SCHUMPETER ON SOCIALISM
(with a review of socialism related parts of |
February, 2014
www.futurecasts.com
The broad relevance of Schumpeter on socialism: |
Joseph A. Schumpeter, in 1942, in “Capitalism,
Socialism, and Democracy,” accurately identified and explained the social and
political tendencies that supported the trends leading to the widespread advance
of socialism after WW-II. Even though socialism has since been widely tried and
found wanting, those social and political forces remain as a
continuing threat to capitalist market systems. |
The Federal Reserve’s commitment to artificially low interest rates, is leading yet once again to a recovery that is full of dangerous froth.
The private sector business cycle is a modern fiction. Government policies have played important and often predominant roles in every economic contraction since WW-I. |
Rather than socialism, they today support industrial policy, socialist and entitlement
welfare state programs, and the spreading of moral hazard credit guarantees
broadly over the commanding heights of the private economy. |
Socialist expectations:
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Joseph A. Schumpeter was a committed socialist with decades of scholarship in socialist history, practice and
theory. "Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy," the source of his theory of
creative destruction in capitalist systems, is thus about socialism, not
capitalism. |
Marx recognized the working class as "an existing or potential source of social power." Marx also recognized the social, economic and political tendencies that supported socialism as a serious political factor.
The labor movement, for one prominent example, is not necessarily socialist and clearly benefits over time from capitalist economic development. |
Schumpeter admired Karl Marx as the first theorist to provide a systematic analysis of socialism. Marx was "the one great socialist
thinker," according to Schumpeter. Marx established socialist theory as a
principled doctrine attached to a class movement. Marx recognized the working class as "an existing or
potential source of social power." Marx also recognized the social, economic and
political tendencies that supported socialism as a serious political factor. Schumpeter thus accepts Marx'
theory as "scientific." |
Competition would continuously drive out the outmoded, the poorly managed and the poorly placed so that profitable capitalist production would always be possible for the survivors.
Capitalism would ultimately be undermined not by some inevitable economic collapse but by its continued massive success. It would eventually achieve a "mature capitalism" state of full capitalization and an economic "stationary state" that would lay the groundwork for socialist takeover. |
Marx readily acknowledged the productivity of capitalism and thus based his prophecy of capitalist demise precisely on its great productivity. Marx' expected that the capitalist drive for capital accumulation and profits would run into a cul-de-sac of overproduction and squeezed profits and ultimately chronic crisis. The result would be an increasingly militant workforce exploited under increasingly harsh working conditions. There would also be an enlarged and militant reserve army of unemployed and underemployed workers that would be ready, willing and able to participate in the triumph of communism. (See, six articles on Das Kapital beginning with Marx, Capital (Das Kapital) (vol. 1)(I).) This expectation, however, ignored the processes of what Schumpeter called "creative destruction."
Competition
would continuously drive out the outmoded, the poorly managed and the poorly
placed so that profitable capitalist production would always be possible for the
survivors and for new capitalist enterprises, Schumpeter explained. Schumpeter viewed the
demise of capitalism as a tentative probability while Marx' viewed it as a
"scientific" certainty. It is a central thesis of Schumpeter's
book that capitalism will ultimately destroy its own foundations not in its
economic evolution but in its sociological evolution. Capitalism would
ultimately be undermined not by some inevitable economic collapse but by its
continued massive success. It would eventually achieve a "mature
capitalism" state of full capitalization and an economic "stationary state"
that would lay the groundwork for socialist takeover. “Capitalism is being
killed by its achievements." Marx' explanation of the
ultimate collapse of capitalism is obviously untenable, according to Schumpeter,
but capitalism was probably doomed nevertheless. |
Socialist experiments were not benign. The suffered catastrophic failures that blighted the lives of billions of people for several generations during the 20th century. |
A segment on creative destruction
occupying about one quarter of this book was included by Schumpeter for the purpose of explaining why Marx' expectation of a capitalist collapse due
to chronic overproduction and profit squeeze would not come to pass. However, it was
communist and socialist systems worldwide that collapsed. These experiments were
not benign. They suffered catastrophic failures that blighted the lives of
billions of people for several generations during the 20th century.
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Schumpeter explained that sociological and
political factors based on envy - "immiserization" - and redistributionist
fervor would probably result in a political turn to socialism at some point in
the future. He recognized tendencies
favoring socialism already existing in the New Deal government, in its
bureaucracy and political classes. Efficiencies of scale of
an increasingly concentrated capitalist system would undermine all of the
smaller competitors. A mature capitalist system would reach a point of
development that left little scope for entrepreneurial activity, thus facilitating
the socialist takeover. He expected innovation to be dominated by the
"increasing mechanization of industrial progress (teamwork) in research
departments," leaving little scope for the individual entrepreneur or small
innovative enterprise. |
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Schumpeter, too, exhibited a total lack of understanding of the infinite possibilities of capitalism and entrepreneurship. In this he was just like Marx and Keynes and so many other left wing intellectuals, and was similarly mugged by reality. |
Both communism and socialism achieved
widespread often fervent acceptance in the years between the world wars with
intellectuals who were all too often intentionally blind to glaring doctrinal weaknesses. Marxian doctrine had achieved
little influence in the U.S. before WW-I.
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Evaluation of Marx: Marxism provides "absolute standards." |
Marxism is in one sense a "religion,"
Schumpeter asserts. For believers, Marxism provides "absolute
standards" for understanding economic events and for guiding actions to achieve
economic salvation from evil. It "promises paradise on this side of the grave." |
Marx' theory most powerfully affirmed "the feelings of the unsuccessful many." Schumpeter notes that opponents who reject this revealed wisdom are "not merely in error but in sin" and are not to be tolerated. |
Marx thus achieved for his secular propaganda myth what the most compelling theology achieves for religion. By proclaiming "socialist deliverance" for the "unsuccessful many" from the horribles of the early phases of capitalist economic development, Marx offered "a new ray of light and a new meaning of life." In the United States during the Great Depression, Marx' theory most powerfully affirmed "the feelings of the unsuccessful many." Schumpeter notes that opponents who reject this revealed wisdom are "not merely in error but in sin" and are not to be tolerated. "But preaching in the garb of analysis and analyzing with a view to heartfelt needs, this is what conquered passionate allegiance and gave the Marxist that supreme boon which consists in the conviction that what one is and stands for can never be defeated but must conquer victoriously in the end."
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Marx' labor theory of value is "without practical importance" and, in any case, "dead and buried."
Since labor power is not produced by rational cost calculations, labor power value will not necessarily be "proportional to the man hours" involved in its "production."
The Surplus Value doctrine does not conform to "the plain facts of economic reality."
Marx' theory of immiserization based on an ever present "industrial reserve army" crumbles in the absence of this army in anything more than cyclical terms.
Marx' frequent references and comments on the business cycle amount to a sufficient body of work "to assure him high rank among the fathers of modern cycle research." |
Schumpeter parses the strengths and weaknesses of several Marxian concepts and provides "a desperately abbreviated outline of the Marxian argument." This evaluation includes Marx' economic interpretation of history, his theory of social classes and his principle of class struggle between capitalist and proletariat, his explanation of the initial "primitive accumulation" of capital, and Marx' denigration of the importance of savings and enterprise.
"It is sufficient that, as we have seen, the profit of every individual plant is incessantly being threatened by actual or potential competition from new commodities or methods of production which sooner or later will turn into a loss. - - - [No] individual assemblage of capital goods remains a source of surplus gains forever."
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Marx "certainly worked in order to verify a definite vision" |
Although there is no objectivity in Marx, Schumpeter
nevertheless has high praise for his “scientific” analytical efforts. Schumpeter acknowledges the frequency with which
tactical considerations colored Marx' public speeches and writings. Marx
"certainly worked in order to verify a definite vision." Schumpeter thus
deals carefully with anything not clearly a carefully crafted presentation of
Marx' mature analytical efforts. |
Marx' propaganda myth:
& |
The fantastic success of Marxian theory
despite its numerous and often obvious weaknesses proves that "in this case the
whole is more than the sum of its parts." Indeed, the whole can be viewed as
either more true or more false than any of its parts. |
This "particularly narrow and warped theory" yields results that are "very simple and definite." However, applied systematically to individual cases it offers only "the unending jingle about the class war between owner and non-owners" that ranges from the inadequate to the trivial. Marxists immediately become experts at everything. |
Marx provides a synthesis of economics and
sociology - but at the expense, according to Schumpeter, of "emasculating"
them both. Political and sociological institutions are analyzed as variables
instead of just as given factors, but at the expense of theoretical
simplification "in terms of class warfare, or attempts at and revolt against
exploitation, of accumulation and of qualitative change in the capital
structure, of changes in the rate of surplus value, and in the rate of profit."
Politics and social developments are determined by economic factors and transmit
those factor impacts back to the economy in accordance with Marx' economic
theory. |
Without denying that economic factors are vital elements in all such historic events, Schumpeter readily demonstrates the absurdity of restricting the understanding of history to economic determinants.
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The naïve in the media and the young are particularly susceptible to this type of myth, Schumpeter observes. "Panting with impatience to have their innings, longing to save the world from something or other, disgusted with textbooks of un-describable tedium, dissatisfied emotionally and intellectually, unable to achieve synthesis by their own effort, they find what they crave for in Marx. There it is, the key to all the most intimate secrets, the magic wand that marshals both great events and small. - - - They need no longer feel out of it in the great affairs of life -- all at once they see through the pompous marionettes of politics and business who never know what it is all about. And who can blame them, considering the available alternatives." |
Schumpeter on socialism:
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Schumpeter, like Marx, presents economic analysis as "science" subject to precise calculation rather than as professional opinion. Schumpeter sets forth a rational scheme for "socialist planning in a stationary process of economic life in which everything is correctly foreseen and repeats itself and in which nothing happens to upset the plan."
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Capitalism will have nearly fulfilled all capital needs, leaving its socialist successor "richly endowed - - - with experience and techniques as well as with resources," and thus "approaching a stationary state." |
Schumpeter ridiculously expects the development of a point of full capitalization, a point where capitalism will have nearly fulfilled all capital needs, leaving its socialist successor "richly endowed - - - with experience and techniques as well as with resources," and thus "approaching a stationary state." Change, he admits, brings forth great administrative complications. Schumpeter admits that he is attempting to mimic market functions without markets.
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Some administrative agency must subject the "freedom of choice of occupation" to "the requirements of its general plan" in a manner analogous to military service. |
The need for
regimentation quickly rears its ugly head. Some administrative agency must
subject the "freedom of choice of occupation" to "the requirements of its
general plan" in a manner analogous to military service. If this is not to indeed lead to serfdom,
a system of "inducements" or "premiums" must be devised to rationally fill all
needed occupations. Something similar to the "labor market" would have to be
established. Similarly, an administered
scheme similar to a market for consumer goods that orients production rationally
"according to indications derived from it" is envisioned by Schumpeter. "[There]
exists no more democratic institution than a market." |
Schumpeter notes that the New Deal effort to cartelize the economy facilitates transition to socialism. "To fight this tendency unconditionally is tantamount to fighting socialism."
Schumpeter repeatedly refers to the absence of perfect competition, thus in this instance ignoring the cornucopia of benefits bestowed by competitive markets operating at levels that are far from perfect. He assumes that since socialism in advanced nations “will inherit a ‘monopolistic’ and not a competitive capitalism, we need not trouble about the competitive case except incidentally.” |
Socialism requires bureaucracy. Lacking
automatic market mechanisms, that bureaucracy would have to be huge. However, in a big
business capitalism increasingly fettered by government intervention, government
bureaucracy will keep growing in any event. By cartelizing the economy, socialist
managers would be relieved from the pressures and uncertainties of competition,
thus actually reducing managerial problems. Schumpeter notes that the New
Deal effort to cartelize the economy facilitates transition to socialism. "To
fight this tendency unconditionally is tantamount to fighting socialism."
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Schumpeter's central ministry would control all sources of revenue and allocate them to producers for productive purposes. |
At least as a matter of theory, the socialist blueprint that he provides is superior, Schumpeter concludes. A socialist society would eliminate the wasted effort involved in the struggle between private capital and public governance. Schumpeter's central ministry would control all sources of revenue and allocate them to producers for productive purposes. (Of course! What could possibly go wrong?)
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Schumpeter deals with bureaucracy and management at the level of philosophy - without any indication of familiarity with the realities of economic management. All problems can be dealt with by the adoption of suitable techniques. Laborers would simply still be laborers. Socialist agriculture can be organized like New Deal agriculture, with farmers simply obeying production directives and receiving various production benefits from the agricultural authority.
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The road to serfdom:
& |
Socialism must be a dictatorship over the
people, instead of a government of the people, Schumpeter bluntly reveals.
He
lauds the "authoritarian discipline" that supports the group and moral
disciplinary forces of socialism. |
Socialist assertion of acting for the people gives the socialist authority moral grounds for other forms of discipline not available to the capitalist. Labor strikes would be viewed as "anti-social attacks upon the nation's welfare." |
Socialism can be far more authoritarian than capitalism, Schumpeter points out, since labor would be totally dependent on the socialist authority. Socialist assertion of acting for the people gives the socialist authority moral grounds for other forms of discipline not available to the capitalist. Labor strikes would be viewed as "anti-social attacks upon the nation's welfare." (See, Hayek, The Road to Serfdom.) Authoritarian
discipline would be essential to achieve and maintain suitable levels of
productivity. Work, after all, remains work. Sub-par
performers will always be a problem. There will remain all the economic, social
or political reasons for dissatisfaction and controversy not related to
capitalism. Ultimately, it would be market forces that would impose a sense of reality and discipline on private sector labor as competition was brought to bear even on monopoly and oligopoly enterprises and their unions. |
There would be "elimination of subnormal units of production, of further concentration on the best opportunities, of locational rationalization and incidental redistribution of the population, of standardization of consumers' and producers' goods and so on."
"Foundation of new firms would of course be prohibited." |
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Schumpeter admires the power that the Soviet Russian state has to indoctrinate youth - "teaching and guiding the young" - in conformity with state ends "and structural ideas." "A strike would be a mutiny." Trade unions become "organs of authoritarian discipline." With intellectual opinion properly restrained, "there is no public opinion to encourage infractions."
In economically unready nations, socialism has to be imposed by guile supported by ruthlessness.
Soviet Russia has established the principle that socialist group and authoritarian discipline is practical, |
The psychological and physical sanctions in
use in Russia are justified by the "unripeness" of the economic situation in
that country. In such economically
unready nations, socialism has to be imposed by guile supported by ruthlessness.
Schumpeter recommends a type of
commanding heights socialism in these instances due to the initial difficulties
involved in organizing the mass of small and medium sized businesses. Organization of the
farm sector should be left until later. "In fact, we need only assume that the ideas prevail which constitute what I have termed idyllic socialism in order to convince ourselves of the likelihood of complete and even ludicrous failure. This would even not be the worst possible outcome. Failure so patent as to be ludicrous could be remedied. Much more insidious as well as likely is failure not so complete which political psycho-technics could make people believe to be a success."
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The democracy problem:
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Democracy is recognized as merely a means to
an end by Schumpeter. It is not an end in itself and is no guarantor of
particular ends. Like socialism,
democratic ideals are frequently held with religious fervor. It is beyond attack
by reason. He provides a fine explanation of the
political considerations that impact the effectiveness of democratic
governance. |
Schumpeter recognizes the pressures driving ultimately towards rational results. Competition inherently creates similar pressures in both economic and political markets. Democratic political contests require many of the skills needed for effective governance and at least weed out most of the total incompetents. However, conflicting interests and shear - sometimes deliberate - ignorance can undermine rational decision making for generations. |
The weaknesses of idyllic notions of democracy
are easily exposed by Schumpeter. The desirability of democratic forms of
governance are evaluated by Schumpeter “independent of the desirability of
results." He parses the obvious
weaknesses of popular opinion and crowd psychology, emphasizing the powers of
advertising and propaganda. "[No] system of selection whatever the social sphere - with the possible exception of competitive capitalism - tests exclusively the ability to perform and selects in the way a stable selects [its race horse entries].
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Successful implementation of democratic governance thus must include checks and balances of powers and constraints on democratic governance - without which democracies routinely fail. |
The prospects for democratic governance at local
levels is far different than at state and national levels due to increased
individual participation and familiarity with issues and leaders. Prospects are
also different with respect to issues of widespread rather than narrow concern,
and in cases where short term interests conflict with long-term interests.
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The competition for political leadership is inevitably far from "perfect" but nevertheless offers a cornucopia of benefits even in imperfect forms. It is also an invaluable method of evicting from government those currently in power.
Schumpeter acknowledges that autocratic forces may permanently hijack the socialist apparatus |
Democracy is a pragmatic method - a
process - for selecting a government and policies from amongst a welter of
conflicting interests and political agendas. Schumpeter rejects it as an ideal.
As
with economic competition, the competition for political leadership is
inevitably far from "perfect" but nevertheless offers a cornucopia of benefits
even in imperfect forms. It is also an
invaluable method of evicting from government those currently in power. Schumpeter describes
the "competitive struggle for power and office," and how politics more
frequently shapes the popular will instead of reflecting the popular will. |
Democratic socialism:
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Only if socialism becomes broadly accepted
is it compatible with political democracy. The loss of broad acceptance of the
capitalist structure renders capitalist democracy increasingly nonfunctional,
Schumpeter points out. (Today, the political rift is over the extent of
industrial policy and the entitlement welfare
state.) |
Socialist democracy "will not increase personal freedom," |
However, democracy must not mean any relaxation of industrial discipline. Socialist democracy "will not increase personal freedom," Schumpeter candidly acknowledges. "After all, effective management of the socialist economy means dictatorship not of but over the proletariat in the factory. - - - As a matter of practical necessity, socialist democracy may eventually turn out to be more of a sham than capitalist democracy ever was." (emphasis Schumpeter) |
Socialism is indeed the road to serfdom, as Schumpeter proposes it. Achievement of the economic success of socialist alternatives to market mechanisms justifies the loss of freedoms. Managing personnel must have suitable authority and independence. He believes bureaucracies can be sufficiently isolated from political pressures as to provide effective professional management for economic entities. In evaluating the prospects for democratic socialism, he assumes the correctness of his analysis of the prospects for the success of socialist economic management. However, he is well aware of how socialist political parties have used patronage as a political tool.
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Schumpeter correctly foresaw the growing socialist influence in the United States. He maintained hopes for socialist success “within the fullness of time,” or within approximately 50 years, but did not venture a confident forecast as to the immediate outcome. He acknowledged the bureaucratic and political economic mismanagement in the U.S., but attributed it to the lack of "maturity" as compared with the more established European bureaucracies that he erroneously thought capable of suitable economic management. He correctly foresaw the triumph of labor-socialism in England and its takeover of much of the economy.
He recognized labor as the most difficult economic segment to socialize and control by political dictate.
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The Stalinist regime was a "military autocracy," like "Fascism." Soviet Russian imperialism was not in any sense socialism, Schumpeter points out. He feared that the spread of the Russian empire might impede the spread of socialism. Schumpeter had little faith in Western ability to fend off the further spread of the Russian empire, which he expected would soon become a dominant military force. (Many have similar fears today with respect to China.) |
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