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Trade War "Understanding the Great
Depression Explaining the Great Depression, its Trade War, and failures of "New" Keynesian interest rate suppression policy without ideological clap trap, theory confirmation bias or political spin. |
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January, 2012 |
FUTURECASTS JOURNAL
An Industrial Policy Horror Story
(with review of "Reckless Endangerment," by Gretchen Morgenson and Joshua Rosner)
The masters of government industrial policy:
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The Credit Crunch
recession is, among many other things, a cautionary tale - indeed, a horror
story - of how even well intentioned government efforts to administer economic
outcomes superior to what can be expected of the markets ultimately become
instruments for the politically influential who pursue their own economic and
political interests at the expense of the national interest. |
The causes of the Credit Crunch recession have already been the subject of numerous books and articles. See, Understanding the Credit Crunch; Tavakoli, "Dear Mr. Buffett;" Cooper, "Origin of Financial Crises." While adding significant details to the Credit Crunch story, the primary contribution of Gretchen Morgenson and Joshua Rosner in "Reckless Endangerment: How Outsized Ambition, Greed, and Corruption Led to Economic Armageddon," is to demonstrate how government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) and "reform" legislation are perverted so that both market disciplines and regulatory constraints are weakened to favor the short term economic and political interests of the politically influential. The authors shine the spotlight on some of the most prominent Credit Crunch malefactors. These include
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Affordable housing policy: |
The facilitation of homeownership has been government
policy for many decades and the resources dedicated to that effort have
persistently been increased over time. In the 1990s, that flow of
resources became a deluge. |
Homebuilding pumped significant sums into local economies and every electoral district had homebuilders, mortgage lenders and realtors who were reliable donors to political campaigns.
The policy obliterated the normal disciplinary constraints of the markets and imposed upon regulators the conflicting objectives of boosting the industries they were supposed to be policing. Both market and regulatory disciplinary constraints disappeared together. |
As usual, the policy was justified on the basis of
the best of good intentions, but it didn't hurt that homebuilding pumped
significant sums into local economies and every electoral district had
homebuilders, mortgage lenders and realtors who were reliable donors to
political campaigns. They, along with securities firms, were enlisted in a
Clinton administration public-private partnership to boost homeownership from
about 64% of households to 70%.
With the advent of the Credit Crunch recession about a
dozen years later, homeownership was transformed from the foundation of middle
class welfare and security to a financial trap that destroyed jobs, net worth,
and retirement accounts. |
The perversion of Fannie Mae: |
James A. Johnson is presented as the primary villain
in the story. As chief executive officer of Fannie Mae, Johnson dominated the
financial and political environment of the real estate industry, amassing great
personal wealth in the process. |
Much of the gain in earnings that justified rapid increases in executive pay and bonuses was based on creative accounting that ignored the massive increase in risks assumed in the process. |
The implied taxpayer subsidy for Fannie Mae
credit permitted Johnson to balloon its activities. However, much of the
gain
in earnings that justified rapid increases
in executive pay and bonuses was based on creative accounting that ignored the massive increase in risks assumed in the process. |
With its foundation, Fannie Mae provided $100 million for lobbying and political contributions that made it the master over its political and regulatory masters. |
Fannie sought to influence pertinent intellectual discourse through its Fannie Mae Papers studies and its support of influential publications like "Housing Policy Debate" and "Journal of Housing Research," which rarely published anything that questioned Fannie and Freddie finances. Intellectuals like Joseph Stiglitz and Peter and Jonathan Orszag criticized the critics of Fannie and Freddie finances. They produced risk assessments that were wildly optimistic. R. Glenn Hubbard, dean of the Columbia Graduate School of Business, defended Fannie's risk management practices in late 2003 - just before the Fannie and Freddie accounting scandals broke. Fannie had effectively bought off almost all the intellectual experts in the field.
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Barney Frank, perhaps the most prominent of the political supporters of the housing policy, brushed off fears of collapse with the insouciant comment: "We'll deal with that problem if it happens." Neither he nor the other government masters of industrial policy have yet to "deal" with that problem. |
Fannie Mae encouraged the relaxation of
lending standards and the elimination of the traditional due diligence practices
of mortgage lending. Wall Street profited handsomely by providing financing for
the effort. "Without Wall Street firms giving billions of dollars to
reckless lenders, hundreds of billions of bad loans would never have been
made."
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The program was facilitated by those who profited from the program and spread by an uncritical mass media, much of which is prone to applaud government industrial policy efforts.
Government unleashed the mortgage mania and undermined both its own regulators and ordinary market disciplines. |
Inevitably, the entire program became a massive government-led fraud on the public, supported by an increasing web of lies and invalid rationalizations. It was facilitated by those who profited from the program and spread by an uncritical mass media, much of which is prone to applaud government industrial policy efforts.
Market failure was widely criticized for the Credit Crunch, but authors Morgenson and Rosner place the blame squarely with government. Real estate, securities and banking, after all, are among the most heavily regulated sectors of the economy. Government unleashed the mortgage mania and undermined both its own regulators and ordinary market disciplines.
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Advantages included an implicit taxpayer guarantee of GSE credit that reduced borrowing costs by about a vital half a percentage point, a $2.5 billion line of credit with the U.S. Treasure, exemption from state and local taxes, and freedom from SEC financial reporting requirements. |
Massive taxpayer advantages were bestowed on the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They used these advantages to push aside private competition.
These advantages included an implicit taxpayer
guarantee of their credit that reduced their borrowing costs by about a vital
half a percentage point, a $2.5 billion line of credit with the U.S. Treasury,
exemption from state and local taxes, and freedom from Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC) financial reporting requirements. The authors assert that these
advantages were worth billions of dollars and that Johnson redirected about one
third of it for shareholders, executive compensation and lobbying expenses. |
Perversion of "safety and soundness" legislation: |
Johnson took over Fannie Mae in 1991. He energetically silenced
critics by showering Fannie Mae grants on some - like the Association of
Community Organizations for Reform (ACORN) - and funding their favorite housing
programs. |
The legislation could not be defeated, so it was perverted by adding multiple objectives that conflicted with the safety and soundness objectives. In practice, the added objectives would take precedence over safety and soundness. |
However, the
Savings and Loan crisis and a crisis involving Citibank generated pressure for
strict regulatory requirements. Thus, Johnson was initially faced with the regulatory constraints in
proposed "safety and soundness" legislation, the Federal Housing Enterprise
Safety and Soundness Act. The ostensible purpose of the legislation was to strengthen
regulation and increase capital requirements to protect taxpayers from losses. |
Johnson and Fannie Mae were not alone in loading taxpayers with financial risks. The New Deal deposit insurance safety net that worked so well when limited to deposits in heavily regulated banks that paid fees into an insurance fund was also being perverted. It was being expanded - massively - to cover insurance companies and even investment banks that were not subject to heavy federal regulation. Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.) slipped the provision into the 1991 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act (FDICIA), another legislative effort designed to protect taxpayers that was surreptitiously hijacked for the benefit of special interests.
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"Affordable housing," "low- and moderate-income housing," and "inner cities" housing requirements provided statutory support for regulatory acceptance of a massive reduction in safety and soundness lending standards and the abandonment of financial prudence.
As lending risks were increased, financial prudence and lending standards were massively decreased. |
Requirements for "affordable housing," "low- and
moderate-income housing," and "inner cities" housing, were
inserted into the safety and soundness legislation. These requirements provided
statutory support for regulatory acceptance of a massive reduction in safety and
soundness lending standards and the abandonment of financial prudence. The
reduction to 5% of traditional 20% down payment requirements and the reduction
of borrower income requirements were justified by the affordable housing
objectives.
Capital adequacy requirements for Fannie and Freddie were reduced
to just 2.5% to enable them to borrow massive sums to finance their affordable housing goals. Prudent
capital adequacy for mortgage lenders had generally been about 10%. Thus, as
lending risks were increased, financial prudence and lending standards were
massively decreased. |
"Any congressman or -woman who objected would instantly be labeled anti-housing, elitist, or an enemy of the American Dream."
OFHEO was subjected to extraordinary Congressional oversight of its regulatory efforts and budget.
"Amid cries of racial discrimination, risk-averse practices were jettisoned." |
The affordable housing goals provided political leverage for Johnson's
ambitious expansion plans. He could always argue that his reductions in safety
and soundness practices were essential to provide the resources for his laudable
affordable housing efforts. "Any congressman or -woman who objected would
instantly be labeled anti-housing, elitist, or an enemy of the American
Dream." Of course, expansion of mortgage lending activities also justified
bodacious increases in executive pay and bonuses at Fannie and Freddie.
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Reliance on borrower credit history was abandoned and high levels of existing borrower expenses were ignored. Gifts from municipal agencies and nonprofits became acceptable for meeting down payment requirements - and predictably characterized the mortgages that suffered the highest default rates. |
Left wing attacks on discriminatory lending practices further drove
abandonment of lending standards and financial prudence. ACORN was joined by
advocacy groups such as the National Council of La Raza, the National Low Income
Housing Coalition, and business groups such as the National Association of Real
Estate Brokers in the frenzied effort to brush aside all lending constraints.
The Boston Federal Reserve Bank was especially active in justifying the
abandonment of prudence. |
Subprime mortgages: "This AAA rating was crucial. Analyzing one mortgage to try to predict its performance was hard enough. Assessing the risks in a security that contained thousands of loans was beyond complex." |
In the summer of 1993, United Companies Financial pooled $165 million of its mortgages into a mortgage-backed security and sold it to investors after receiving a triple-A rating for it from the rating agencies. This was the first time such mortgage securities had been passed on to private investors rather than to the GSEs.
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Subprime borrowers were suddenly welcomed. Subprime borrowers paid higher fees and interest rates, and credit risk was passed on to investors or Fannie or Freddie. |
It was a good idea. However, like any credit vehicle, it could be
abused - and it was - big time. In 2003, $467 billion in mortgage-backed
securities were sold to investors. |
Fannie's affordable housing cabal: |
Johnson invoked the affordable housing objective to justify loading
taxpayers with this massive increase in Fannie Mae risk. |
Millions of unsuspecting people would soon find themselves trapped in high-cost loans that they could not afford as a result of this brilliant example of government industrial policy. |
To shield Fannie from
its critics, $1 trillion was allocated to minority and low income housing
mortgages. The lending process was to be automated. Mortgage lenders like
Countrywide Financial quickly climbed on board. Millions of unsuspecting people
would soon find themselves trapped in high-cost loans that they could not afford
as a result of this brilliant example of government industrial policy.
Thus, prominent supporters and lenders were readily enlisted to oppose
any legislation or regulation that might constrain Fannie activities. In Kansas
City, for example, notables climbing aboard Fannie's bandwagon included Richard
Moore, president of Commerce Mortgage Corp.; Richard Stanley, chief executive of
Payless Cashways; and Colleen Hernandez, executive director of the Kansas City
Neighborhood Alliance. This was repeated all across the nation, creating an army
of influential supporters ready to quash any opposition. |
Fannie's exemption from local taxes - a perquisite worth
annually about $300 million - was targeted by D.C. council member William P. Lightfoot.
This was money desperately needed in D.C. at that time. However, the D.C. council
was quickly swamped with opposition from local activists and educators who even
marshaled school children to protect Fannie's tax exemption. When Rep. Pete
Stark (D-Cal.) tried to schedule hearings on the matter, he couldn't find any
witnesses willing to support Lightfoot's initiative. By allocating tens of
millions of dollars for local projects, Fannie was able to avoid $300 million in
annual local taxes. |
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By 2010, Frank had a sudden loss of memory about the 1992 reform legislation and his role in gutting it.
Summers demanded changes in the report that resulted in a watered down, noncommittal report ending with the politically convenient recommendation for further studies. |
Barney Frank (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Financial
Services Committee during periods of Democratic control of the House, was
continuously courted by Johnson and other Fannie executives with campaign
donations, the hiring of Frank protégés and other favors. Frank responded by
remaining a powerful supporter of Fannie programs. Frank and Henry Gonzalez
(D-Tex.), for example, fiercely attacked Congressional Budget Office director
Robert D. Reischauer when he testified in May 1991 in favor of imposing
visibility, safety and soundness constraints on Fannie and Freddie.
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Over $2 billion was a clearly exorbitant price to pay for the slim reduction in borrowing costs and other homeowner benefits offered by Fannie and Freddie. Moreover, the huge and growing credit risks posed by the implied taxpayer guarantees was an immense cost that was not being assessed against Fannie and Freddie. |
Fannie and Freddie were "spongy conduits" for government
largesse, Phaup concluded. Over $2 billion was a clearly exorbitant price to pay
for the slim reduction in borrowing costs and other homeowner benefits offered
by Fannie and Freddie. Moreover, the huge and growing credit risks posed by the
implied taxpayer guarantees was an immense cost that was not being assessed
against Fannie and Freddie. |
Congress thus rejected full privatization, and still maintains Fannie and Freddie, now as financial zombies soaking up tens of billions of dollars in losses. However, the CBO study emboldened others to take a close look at Fannie and Freddie. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis generated critical studies of the two mortgage agencies but did not recommend the ending of the "special relationship." Among the defenders of Fannie and Freddie were Sen. Diane Feinstein (D-Cal.) and Angelo Mozilo of Countrywide Financial.
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Ignoring the death of the canary:
? |
The subprime loan business for
used cars crashed in 1997 and 1998. Mercury Finance, Jayhawk Acceptance,
and First Merchant Acceptance Corp. failed in a practically exact rehearsal of
the housing mortgage boom and bust of a decade later. Most of the other subprime
auto-lenders failed or were merged into larger businesses or were greatly scaled
back, but the subprime mortgage lending and securitization business continued to
charge forward. |
Early casualties among the subprime mortgage lenders were
Cityscape Financial and Greentree Financial. David Grafman, an S&P analyst,
warned of the risks of allowing mortgage lenders to
book earnings when mortgage securities were sold despite continuing risks from
defaults and prepayments. When losses occurred and had to be booked, the share
prices of high flying mortgage lenders fell dramatically. However, larger
mortgage financial entities began buying these hot mortgage lenders, providing
legitimacy to the industry. |
Becoming too-big-to-fail: |
The massive benefits of implicit taxpayer
credit guarantees can be enjoyed - and are increasingly enjoyed - by other
private sector financial and business entities. All they need to do is become
too-big-to-fail. |
Mergers and acquisitions designed to create too-big-to-fail financial institutions are thus very popular.
Now, commercial banks were free to expand into other risky activities and merge with investment banks to grow too-big-to-fail. A boom in bank mergers soon followed, spawning a whole industry of too-big-to-fail financial institutions. |
If their size and the scope of their financial activities are
such as to make their failure a threat to the entire financial system,
government would be forced to bail out their creditors in the event of a default.
These taxpayer guarantees were needed to sustain the levels of confidence essential for an increasingly leveraged
financial system. These taxpayer guarantees substantially reduce the borrowing
costs of too-big-to-fail financial institutions, providing them with a valuable
competitive advantage over smaller rivals.
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The new financial world of moral hazard began with the
1999 bailout of the creditors of the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management. In
1990, Drexel Burnham creditors had received no such bailout, yet the financial
world did not collapse. However, N.Y. Fed president William J. McDonough, along
with Greenspan, Summers and Rubin, arranged the bailout of Long Term Capital
Management. Major Wall Street firms provided the bailout, but the N.Y. Fed
provided the financial muscle. ? |
Bubble mania:
? |
As commercial banks were freed to move into risky financial
sectors, regulatory constraints and oversight were persistently reduced.
Morgenson and Rosner explain some of the more prominent steps in the reduction
of regulatory safeguards. |
Once again, the bureaucrats and politicians were not being guided by intellectual analysis. They were instead generating the analyses they wanted. Opposing analytical efforts were either ignored or disparaged. |
Greenspan and other market fundamentalists provided the
intellectual support for this remarkable policy progression. Everyone was
invited to the speculative bonanza prior to the Credit Crunch - with the
ultimate risks passed by moral hazard policies to the taxpayer. |
Johnson was Washingtonian magazine's Washingtonian of the year. |
Andrew Cuomo at HUD raised Fannie and Freddie subprime lending requirements
to 50% in
1999 based on this kind of intellectual support. Raines and
Charles Ruma of Fannie Mae were among the celebrants at the policy announcement,
as well as Fannie grant recipients like Bart Harvey of the Maryland nonprofit
Enterprise Foundation. Pres. Clinton cheered the new policy.
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Accounting fraud: |
Creative accounting came to the rescue when
the Russian debt default undermined earnings and threatened pay levels and
bonuses. |
Fannie improperly used low-income tax credits received by the company to justify both record high reported earnings and high bonuses. Leanne Spencer was then one of Fannie's finance officials. In subsequent years, Goldman helped Fannie manipulate its earnings.
When OFHEO finally discovered the ongoing accounting fraud in 2005, Franklin Raines was in charge at Fannie. Although it had begun under Johnson, Johnson was never charged. It was determined that, without fraud, there would have been no executive bonuses in 1998.
Johnson became chairman of the Brookings Institution and
head of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, and a director with
Target Corp., United Healthcare, and later with Goldman. |
Asleep at the Fed:
? |
The extraordinary 1998 bailout of Long Term Capital
Management was
recognized by the Fed as a wakeup call about modern interconnected markets.
However, as with the earlier subprime auto-loan crisis, it was quickly forgotten
and no defensive measures were taken. |
"The belief that the free market could police itself better than any government regulator had already taken hold." |
Greenspan remained insouciantly asleep at the switch. "The
belief that the free market could police itself better than any government
regulator had already taken hold." (Of course, the free market police force
had been disarmed and reduced to part time employment.) |
Risk assessments were based on experience
during the 1990s - a period of practically uninterrupted prosperity.
"In the pre-crisis days, the information the Fed wanted to withhold was critical to the public understanding of proposed changes to bank capital rules and posed no threat to world markets. As a result, the Fed's actions were dubious at best and manipulative at worst." |
The FDIC was alarmed at the impact on its insurance fund in the
event of defaults among the rapidly expanding large banks. It calculated that
proposed regulatory changes would reduce minimum capital requirements by 40%,
and questioned the internal risk assessment methods on which the regulatory
change proposals were based. These risk assessments were based on experience
during the 1990s - a period of practically uninterrupted prosperity.
Fortunately, the proposed capital adequacy requirement reductions were never implemented. However, the capital adequacy requirements for asset securities like mortgage-backed securities were considerably reduced by the Basil Committee - with drastic consequences.
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The ratings agencies: |
The failings of the ratings agencies are
subjected to scathing criticism from Morgenson and Rosner. |
Fundamental data like borrower debt-to-income ratios, the type of property assessment relied upon and the identity of the loan originator were not required by the ratings agencies. They merely accepted uncritically the information provided to them by the securitization banks.
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The subprime mortgage bubble expanded swiftly, generating lending fees, interest payments, loan purchase fees, underwriting revenues, and profits from retail lending for Wall Street. With years of artificially low interest rates, the Fed created a seriously distorted financial climate and incentives that further stimulated bubble mania. |
Nevertheless, the regulations of the Basel Committee continued
to rely on the opinions of the ratings agencies. Asset-backed securities rated
triple-A or double-A were classed with GSE-issued mortgage securities as
requiring lower capital set-asides. Ignored was the lack of rating agency
experience with respect to the new complex asset-backed securities. In November
2001, bank regulators in the U.S. followed the Basel Committee lead. |
"In 2008 and after, every Fed rescue, every Fed solution seemed designed to benefit the major banks at the expense of the taxpayers." |
Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) were diverse types of debt instruments that were supposed to be resistant to economic contractions. Nevertheless, they collapsed with the broader economy during the dot-com bust. American Express, for example, reported a $1 billion loss. However, this was ignored by the regulators. It was small potatoes compared to the mortgage-backed securities bubble already vigorously expanding.
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Efforts to restrain predatory lending practices were
strenuously opposed by the ratings agencies and subprime industry lobbyists like William H. Andrews, Jr. |
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Even after Enron and WorldCom, government regulations continued to rely on ratings agency opinions
The rating agency claim that they are mere opinion providers and occasional victims of accounting fraud is rejected by the authors by, among other things, pointing out that the ratings agencies have privileged access to confidential financial information from their clients. |
The abuses of the ratings agencies are explained in some detail
by Morgenson and Rosner. The ratings agencies made substantial fees rating GSE securities, so they were
especially kind to Fannie and Freddie. The highly leveraged GSEs were awarded
high investment grade ratings by S&P up to a few weeks before the two GSEs
collapsed. These ratings were clearly based on the implied taxpayer guarantees
enjoyed by the GSEs - even though the Fed, Treasury and Barney Frank persisted
in denying that GSE creditors were indeed protected. However, at least for purchasers of GSE preferred
securities the guarantees
proved illusory.
Enron had been highly rated by all the ratings agencies until four
days of its collapse. As with the GSEs, the ratings agencies were blind to the
risks retained from off-balance-sheet financial arrangements. WorldCom had been
highly rated until a month before its collapse. Nevertheless, government
regulations continue to rely on ratings agency opinions.
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Goldman Sachs:
? |
The relationship between Fannie and Goldman Sachs
was especially tight. In 1999, Johnson became a member of the Goldman board
where he chaired the firm's compensation committee. Stephen Friedman, Goldman
chairman from 1992 to 1994, became a member of Fannie's board in 1996 and sat on
its compensation committee and other powerful committees. |
Goldman executives, including David Rosenblum and Peter Niculescu, devised an accounting scheme that permitted Fannie to shift earnings from one accounting period to another to assure earnings growth after 2001. |
An OFHEO report charged Fannie's board with accepting earnings
targets so low that they were sure to be met. These low targets were used to
justify high pay and bonus levels for executives. Henry M. Paulson, Jr., became
chairman of Goldman in 1999. As Treasury Secretary, he would later oversee
Fannie's bailout during the Credit Crunch. |
Intentional ignorance in Washington: |
The practices and risks of
Fannie and Freddie and their supporters were set forth in some detail in a
2002 Washingtonian article by Ross Gruberman. The article explained the threats
Fannie employed to silence critics. |
Fannie transparency, mission, business practices and culture were "best in class," Raines testified. |
The taxpayers are on the hook for hundreds of billions of dollars
if
Fannie and Freddie stumble, Gruberman presciently warned. Ralph Nader was one of
the prominent supporters of the article.
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The Bush (II) administration was even more aggressive than the Clinton administration in dispensing with lending standard constraints. Down-payment assistance, "affordability products" mortgages with low initial interest rates and little relationship to equity in the home, and the Greenspan Fed maintaining 1% discount, federal funds and bill rates loosed a wild boom in housing and mortgage securities. |
The risks of catastrophic financial contagion created by Fannie and
Freddie practices were explained in no uncertain terms in a 2003 letter from
OFHEO head Armando Falcon to financial committee heads Richard Shelby (R-Ala.)
and Michael Oxley (R-Ohio) and ranking Democrats Paul Sarbanes (D-Md.) and Barney
Frank (D-Mass.).
As the mortgage market bubble began its final most exuberant phase, these
legislators did nothing - and the Bush (II) administration immediately demanded
Falcon's resignation. As replacement, they nominated Mark C. Brickell. Brickell
had been a high level J. P. Morgan executive and had lobbied successfully
against regulation of over-the-counter derivatives trading.
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In 2006, Fed supervision head William Rutledge pronounced that Citi had made "significant progress" in improving compliance and risk management. |
The risks posed by "too-big-to-fail" financial
institutions was also being determinedly ignored at the Fed. In 2005,
Minneapolis Fed president Gary Stearn coauthored with Ron Feldman "Too Big
To Fail: The Hazard of Bank Bailouts." However, the warnings were quickly
countered by Frederic S. Mishkin of the Columbia Business School with
a 2005 NBER working paper "How Big is Too Bid To Fail?" which was
published in 2006 in the "Journal of Economic Literature." Mishkin
touted the reforms of the 1991 FDICIA banking reform law and banking business
practices as adequate safeguards. Mishkin was thereafter a Bush (II) appointee
to the Fed Board of Governors. He resigned after the Bear Stearns collapse.
In 2006, Fed supervision head William Rutledge pronounced that Citi
had made "significant progress" in improving compliance and risk
management. |
Mozilo of Countrywide Financial: |
Angelo R. Mozilo of Countrywide
Finance was already a prime driving force in the mortgage bubble mania. |
Adjustable rate loans, liar loans, no document loans, no equity loans - all were pushed by Countrywide, while Fannie Mae cheered and pushed for more. But Countrywide was profiting by imposing high rates, costs and prepayment fees on naïve, low income borrowers. |
Countrywide "Fast-N-Easy" loans required no documentation of the borrower's income or assets and accepted borrowers whose debt-to-income levels were as high as 50%. Countrywide was the leading lender to minority homebuyers. When Maxine Waters (D-Cal.) wanted lenders to dispense with even the 5% down payment, Countrywide obliged. Adjustable rate loans, liar loans, no document loans, no equity loans - all were pushed by Countrywide, while Fannie Mae cheered and pushed for more. But Countrywide was profiting by imposing high rates, costs and prepayment fees on naïve, low income borrowers.
Consumer advocates like Robert Graizada of Greenlining Institute, a
Berkeley, California nonprofit, complained that unsophisticated minority
borrowers were provided with incomprehensible loan documents that trapped them
in untenable mortgages. |
Mozilo adopted the same tactics against critics of his reckless
lending practices as had Johnson at Fannie. Lobbying expenses rose from $60,000
in 1998 to $1.1 million in 2003 and $1.52 million in 2005. Along with GSE
lobbyists, Countrywide lobbyists supported the exclusion of mortgage
foreclosures from bankruptcy law protection. |
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KB Home Mortgage was a Countrywide partner in the housing and
mortgage business. It was run by Bruce Karatz. Johnson was on its board. Henry
Cisneros was a partner in a disastrous affordable housing development that
saddled HUD and the Federal Housing Authority with abandoned houses and massive
losses from defaulted mortgages. |
The NovaStar debacle:
? |
NovaStar Financial, originated in Kansas by Scott Hartman and W. Lance Anderson, was one of the host of mortgage originators that rushed to get on the subprime gravy train. They expanded NovaStar nationwide.
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Numerous dubious NovaStar accounting tricks were evident to Cohodes, including overstated property assessments and gain-on-sale accounting of income that ignored default rates. |
Marc Cohodes, a Wall Street bear, knew a rat when he smelled it. To
start the stock on its downward track so he could profit on his short sales, he
began sending his information to the SEC, where it landed on the desk of Amy
Miller, a young attorney with the enforcement division. Numerous dubious
NovaStar accounting tricks were evident to Cohodes, including overstated
property assessments and gain-on-sale accounting of income that ignored default
rates. NovaStar lending practices were lax and permeated by hidden fees that
often undermined the already shaky finances of its subprime borrowers. But the
SEC would not act. |
It was state regulators in Massachusetts and Nevada in 2004 that first
reacted - issuing cease and desist orders that drove NovaStar out of those
states. A Wall Street article followed that resulted in a 30% drop in the
NovaStar stock price. A HUD report sharply criticized NovaStar's business
practices. Its leading mortgage insurer, PMI, stopped insuring its loans.
Even the failure to disclose the adverse actions of PMI and state
regulators and the HUD report failed to move the SEC. Cohodes revealed
that many of the branch mortgage-origination offices boasted of in NovaStar financial
reports were phony. The SEC even failed to respond to a 2003 ABN AMRO Mortgage
Group suit against NovaStar for fraud, breach of contract and negligence. The
suit alleged phony borrowers and inflated appraisals in the NovaStar originated
mortgages that ABN AMRO had invested in. Additional law suits followed. |
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Between 2004 and 2007, NovaStar raised more than $400 million from investors while the SEC dithered. The disclosure documents disclosed almost nothing of the firm's difficulties. However, lawsuits and market information were running against NovaStar and its stock price was in sharp decline - to $5 per share in 2007. The company imploded. Its shareholders lost about $1 billion in market value. Losses on the more than $10 billion in the mortgages it originated may be much more than $1 billion.
Anderson still runs what's left of NovaStar as a property appraiser
and financial services firm. |
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Bubble? What Bubble?
? |
Among the analysts who raised alarms about the
blossoming housing and mortgage-backed securities bubbles were one of the
authors, Joshua Rosner as early as 2001, and Dean Baker of the Washington D.C.
Center for Economic Policy Research in 2002. Baker determinedly circulated his
article among Fed analysts, but they just as determinedly ignored his efforts. |
Greenspan and Bernanke cast doubt on the existence of an asset bubble and denied any Fed role in limiting asset bubbles. "[The] Fed was flying into the biggest credit storm in almost a century without instruments." |
After all, rising housing prices were viewed as a
marvelous generator of wealth and economic prosperity by Greenspan and Bernanke. Morgenson and Rosner
explain some of the gross weaknesses of the pertinent analytical methods used by
Fed economists. Most Fed analysts determinedly discounted the existence of the
housing bubble mania. In 2005, N.Y. Fed senior economist Charles Himmelberg with
two co-authors explained in detail why there was no bubble in housing. Some Fed
researchers generated such papers to satisfy Fed supervisors who wanted to
counter increasing fears of bubble mania.
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Creative accounting:
? |
GSE accounting scandals began to emerge in
2002. They were diligently reported along with various GSE political and
public relations maneuvers by the new "GSE Report," originated by
lobbyist Anne Canfield of Canfield Associates. The report shed a disinfecting
light on GSE activities. In 2003, heads began to role at Freddie Mac. OFHEO, now
under Armando Falcon, was flexing some regulatory muscle. |
The National Association of Realtors and the National Association of Homebuilders threw their considerable lobbying weight against the regulatory reform legislation, characterizing it as a threat to affordable housing objectives that would hurt the poor and minorities. The legislation died. |
Fannie had to marshal Congressional supporters such as Robert
W. Ney (R-Ohio) and Ed Royce (R-Cal.) to block new regulatory legislation that
was supported by Sens. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.), Elizabeth Dole (R-NC.) and John
Sununu (R-NH.) and Rep. Richard Baker (R-La.). Reps. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) and
Maxine Waters (D-Cal.) were especially active in blocking Bush (II) legislation
designed to move regulatory oversight to Treasury. The National Association of
Realtors and the National Association of Homebuilders threw their considerable
lobbying weight against the legislation, characterizing it as a threat to
affordable housing objectives that would hurt the poor and minorities. The
legislation died. |
"Much of the manipulation was designed to trigger executive bonuses. Indeed, of the more than $90 million in executive compensation received by Raines from 1998 through 2003, over $52 million was directly tied to achieving earnings-per-share targets through phony accounting."
Although Jim Johnson was not named, Deloitte found that these irregularities were in existence during his administration. |
OFHEO hired Deloitte and Touche to examine Freddie's accounting
practices. The lead accountant had led the Enron examination. Support was
growing in the Bush (II) administration and the Republican Congress for stronger
regulatory oversight. Fannie supporters Jim Johnson, Peter Orszag,
Robert Rubin and Tim Geithner moved to become part of the political team for the
presidential run of Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.). If Kerry could get the Democratic
nomination and win the 2004 election, all these problems could be made to go
away.
Although Jim Johnson was not named, Deloitte found that these
irregularities were in existence during his administration. |
HUD had bought toxic mortgage securities that had passed through Fannie without required reports. HUD investigation into Fannie nonprofit partnership offices found them basically corrupt. |
Fannie was now also getting grief from HUD, which had bought toxic
mortgage securities that had passed through Fannie without required reports. HUD
investigation into Fannie nonprofit partnership offices found them basically
corrupt. "A disproportionate percentage of their money had gone to support
lobbying efforts and the dispensing of favors in violation of their nonprofit
status or reporting requirements." |
By November, 2004, Fannie was being directed by its lawyers. It missed
its deadline for financial statements and closed its public relations and
lobbying efforts. HUD began circulating the OFHEO report among legislators. But
the HUD inspector general was busy impuning OFHEO and its report. |
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However, the SEC was now finally fully involved, and the HUD inspector
general report had no legs. That December, SEC chief accountant Donald
Nicolaiser blasted Fannie derivatives accounting practices. Raines finally had
no counter move. Fannie suffered a $6.3 billion reduction in previously reported
earnings. Multiple investigations were now in progress. Fannie stock hit the
skids. OFHEO announced that Fannie was "significantly
undercapitalized," and heads began to role - including Raines'.
Shareholder suits, however, are another matter. Of course, taxpayers
are still paying the legal bills - in excess of $24 million - of Fannie
executives Raines, Leanne Spencer and Timothy Howard. |
Wall Street:
? |
The most prestigious firms on Wall Street were
happy to reap the profits for providing the financing for the housing and
mortgage-backed securities bubbles. These firms claim to be - and in many instances
actually are - the smartest participants in the markets and could not help but
be aware of the dodgy assets they were packaging for sale to clients. |
Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and
many smaller firms were active financial enablers of bubble-mania. However, none
were more cynical in their involvement than Goldman Sachs, which by the middle
of the last decade was betting against the securities it was selling to clients.
Its extensive arrangements with mortgage originator Fremont Investment and Loan
and its chairman James McIntyre is described at length by Morgenson and Rosner. |
Regulators issued new guidelines on subprime lending late in 2006. The ability of the borrower "to make payments over the life of the loan" should be considered. Regina Louise of the Mortgage Bankers Association blasted the guidance as regulatory overreach and a threat to affordable housing objectives. Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan even at this late date downplayed the threat to the banking system of the mortgage mania. However, by 2007, ratings agencies were forced to severely downgrade CDOs loaded with nonperforming loans. Investors were abandoning the collateralized debt obligation (CDO) market.
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Wall Street "greed and self-interest took the mortgage mania to heights -- or depths, depending on your view -- it could not possibly have reached without Wall Street's involvement. And in so doing, Wall Street helped propel world financial markets to the brink of collapse." |
Warning of the impending CDO market meltdown was provided in February 2007 by author Joshua Rosner with Joseph Mason. Goldman began taking write-downs on toxic mortgage assets, and began trying to get originators like New Century, WAMU and Freemont to take them back "as there seem to be issues potentially including some fraud at origination, but resolution will take months and be contentious." As Goldman continued to push massive amounts of subprime mortgage securities out to investors, its traders were betting the investors would be massive losers.
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The bubbles burst:
? |
Even as market collapse proceeded,
Bernanke and Geithner at the Fed remained clueless. Along with Paulson at
Treasury, they played the confidence game that March, providing authoritative
assurances that mortgage market problems could be contained. |
However, a suit by the California insurance commissioner and an FDIC cease and desist order doomed Freemont. Insiders like chairman McIntyre offloaded Fremont stock and stuffed employee retirement accounts with it. New Century went bankrupt, but Fremont took another year to die a lingering death. Bear Stearns, Fannie and Freddie, Lehman Brothers and AIG Group failed in 2008, costing taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars.
They demonstrated how a well-meaning industrial policy like the
homeownership policy could be corrupted into something that could poison the
global economy. However, most of the malefactors have simply moved on, sometimes
to bigger and better things. |
Malfeasors:
? |
Most the miscreants avoided damage to
their careers or fortunes. Morgenson and Rosner mention Treasury Secretary Timothy
Geithner; Obama national security adviser Tom Donilong; New York Governor Andrew
Cuomo; William Daley, now White House chief of
staff; and Thomas R. Nides, who was a State
Department nominee as of the writing of the book. |
The Dodd-Frank reform legislation fails to protect taxpayers. |
Two prime miscreants, Chris Dodd and Barney Frank, sponsored Washington's legislative reform response. Its fifteen hundred pages, however, fail to protect taxpayers. There are no size reductions required for too-big-to-fail institutions. These institutions earn private profits from the valuable taxpayer guarantees of their credit. Nor did the legislation increase the accountability of their executives. Fannie and Freddie remain on their taxpayer life-support with costs in excess of $140 billion and rising. Barney Frank was still denying that Fannie and Freddie played any role in the Credit Crunch crisis. |
Others who faired well include:
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